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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
1026 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Synopsis...

A few showers may develop well ahead of a slowly approaching
cold front tonight into early Tuesday morning. As the front gets
closer, expect rounds of heavy rain late Tuesday into Wednesday
along with a period of strong to damaging wind gusts possible.
A few lingering showers are possible Thursday, but the trend
towards drier, less humid and more seasonable temperatures are
expected Thursday into Friday. Above normal temperatures may
return by this weekend.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...

1030 PM update...

A mild, mostly quiet night ahead. Increasing mid to upper level
cloud decks subsequent of a pseudo-baroclinic Leaf ahead of a
maturing low over the Great Lakes region. Upsloping motions
yielding weak lift, seeing a few showers break out over west New
England. Increasing coverage into morning but overall light.

Meanwhile, neighboring the anti-cyclonic gyre over the northwest Atlantic,
continued S flow and usherance of sub-tropical air into our
region. Mix of low clouds and drier air making forecasting at
our local Airport terminals tricky. Highest confidence for foggy
conditions mainly across the high terrain given the increasing
mid to upper level cloud decks that blanket the region keeping
overnight temperatures stable in the 60s, in some places non-
diurnal, warming instead. Increasing S winds will also scour out
the fog threat.

&&

Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...

Expect showers to move slowly across the region during the day
Tuesday. Very sultry airmass in place with increasing S winds.
Precipitable water values up to 1.6 to 1.7 inches will slide up the coast
ahead of the front. Will also see some heavier downpours develop
with this airmass mainly across western areas during the
afternoon. Heaviest rainfall looks to hold off until Tue night.

Good instability also develops across central and western areas
during Tue afternoon. Tq values increase to the upper teens,
with k indices reaching the lower-mid 30s across central and
western areas. Have mentioned some thunderstorms in the forecast
as well. Also, with strong low and mid level jet associated
with the approach surface front and mid level short wave, expect
S winds gusting up to 30-40 mph, highest along the S coast.

High temps will reach to upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...

Highlights...

* period of strong to damaging wind gusts possible Tue into Wed

* heavy rain will result in an urban/street flooding threat Tue-
Wed along with a risk of isolated flash flooding

* less humid & more seasonable weather finally return Thu/Fri

Overview and model preferences...
blocking across the west Atlantic continually sharpens up toward
Labrador through the long term. This allows for a near constant
trof reloading pattern over the conus, the first of which will
be associated with the heavy rain/strong winds Tue into Wed, but
after taking on negative tilt and lifting north-northeast late week, a
secondary longwave trof develops in the Lee of the Continental
Divide thanks to reinforcement of Arctic influence. Will
continue with a baseline of ensembles given the highly amplified
pattern, which will take into account most solutions in the
envelope.

Details...

Tue night and Wed...

Met overview...
a cold front becomes gradually parallel to the low-mid lvl flow
as strong upper lvl trof digs and takes on a negative tilt late
Tue night into Wed. The progression of the front across S New
England is very slow as a result, and is likely to take until
Wed evening to fully shift offshore. The parent trof has a draw
of subtropical air with precipitable waters reaching very close to 2.00 inches
(3 std deviations above normal). As dwpts respond to this
moisture in the low lvls, soundings become conditionally
unstable, resulting in 300-500j/kg of cape available. Finally, a
strong llj, which peaks at about 60 kt at h92 and near 70 kt at
850 mb shifts north-S through the area late night into early Wed. This
will lead to a very unsettled, prolonged period of wet wx,
potentially exceeding 24 hrs.

Wind/severe threat...
low level jet peaks late Tue night into early Wed, with h92 speed values
around 60 kt even on the typically more conservative European model (ecmwf)/eps
members. Combination of precip drag and some bl mixing thanks to
conditionally unstable lapse rates will likely lead to some of
this momentum reaching the ground. Widespread 35-45 mph wind
gusts are likely, even into interior New England. However, 50-60
mph are also possible, especially across southeast Massachusetts/Rhode Island where the
core of the low level jet peaks. With some instability, thunderstorms,
and/or even a fine line of convection will more efficiently mix
these winds down, potentially leading to localized higher impact
damage. While this is possible anywhere in New England, highest
winds will still be featured across the southeast. Wind advisories
will be hoisted, and given fully leaved trees, will highlight
all of S New England for this risk, but still monitor for
localized higher impacts in thunderstorms/fine convective line.
This coincides with the swody2 upgrade to a slight risk, given
localized gusts could produce more damage in convection. Peak
will be overnight into Wed morning. One final note, cannot rule
out a brief spinup given the high shear (helicity 300+) and low
LCLs within the moist airmass. This is a very low/localized
risk.

Heavy rain...
high pwats and the influence of convective potential could
yield pockets of heavy rain with rainfall rates exceeding 1in/hr
at times. The combination of the slow movement of the front,
and strong S low level jet suggests a risk for training heavier cells,
which could lead to prolonged periods of high-rate rainfall. A
slight east component to the low lvl flow could lead to enhanced
upslope in east slopes of the Berkshires and Litchfield Hills. Even
though dry, with flash flood guidance nearly 3-4 inches/hr, the long
timeframe could exceed 3 or 6 hr flash flood guidance. Flashier streams
will see a risk for flooding. Therefore, will be hoisting a Flash Flood
Watch with this update mainly for west portions of the forecast
area, where the enhancement is most apparent. Further E,
training/heavy rain is still an issue, but the risk would be
more in the form of urban/poor drainage flash flooding,
exacerbated if stripped leaves clog drains. We may need to
expand the Flash Flood Watch for this risk in later updates. Overall
widespread 1.5-2.5 inches are expected with localized 3-4 inches
certainly possible.

Thu...
dry air moves in through the column aloft first, trapping some
lower lvl moisture into the day on Thu. The combination of this,
some cold advection and strong cyclonic curvature aloft suggest
a risk for lingering clouds and rain showers through much of the day,
but not nearly as widespread as the previous 24-48 hours. H92
temps drop to about +6c on average, so expecting seasonable
temperatures with highs mainly in the upper 50s and low 60s
while weak flow overnight and gradual clearing should allow mins
to drop into the 40s.

Fri and Sat...
dry period as weak mid lvl ridging forms between the exiting
cutoff/trof to the NE and deepening longwave trof shifting east
into the prairies. H92 temps hover around +9c to +10c each day,
suggesting highs will be seasonably warm, mainly in the mid
60s, although overnight lows will be seasonable thanks to some
radiational cooling especially Fri night. Dwpts in the low-mid
40s during the afternoon suggest these will be near the
overnight lows.

Sun into Mon...
with a very amplified pattern timing/mesoscale features are not
resolved well this far out, but given a similar setup with a
gradually tilting trof with some subtropical moisture associated
with it, will have to watch for another round of low pres with
widespread rainfall. Will favor the slower timing of ensembles
given the meridional nature of the pattern. At the very least,
another unsettled wet period is possible early next week.

&&

Aviation /02z Tuesday through Saturday/...

Forecaster confidence levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday/...moderate confidence.

Tonight...
trend low-end VFR to MVFR with ceilings. Highest confidence of any
IFR across the high terrain. Similar trends with respect to fog.
Increasing S winds towards morning with gusts up to 25 kts along
the S coast. Risk of low level wind shear as winds 2 kft agl will be 35 to 40
kts, especially in sheltered interior valleys. Rain showers developing
already in west Massachusetts and west CT, increasing in areal coverage towards
morning but remaining mostly light.

Tuesday...
continued low-end VFR and MVFR ceilings with IFR confined to high
terrain. However, areas of -ra/rain push slowly into the region
during the day. +Ra late in the day across west areas. Occasional
thunderstorms and rain at times in the afternoon. Tempo IFR expected. S/southeast winds
gusting up to 25-30 kt, possibly to 40 kt in any thunderstorms and rain. Highest
gusts along S coast, Cape Cod and islands. Areas of low level wind shear with S
winds 2 kft agl around 50 kts, mainly for interior sheltered
valleys.

Kbos terminal...moderate confidence in taf.
Will keep low-end VFR to MVFR the remainder of the evening as winds
shift S.

Kbdl terminal...moderate confidence in taf.
Ceilings lowering to MVFR. -Shra developing. Tempo MVFR vsbys possible.
S winds gusting up to 20-25 kt by around midday Tuesday.

Outlook /Tuesday night through Saturday/...

Tuesday night: mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts to 40 kt. Ra, chance tsra, patchy br.

Wednesday: mainly VFR late, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Ra, patchy br.

Wednesday night: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance shra, chance ra, patchy br.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance rain showers.

Thursday night through friday: VFR.

Friday night: VFR. Patchy br.

Saturday: VFR.

&&

Marine...

Forecaster confidence levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Tuesday/...

Expect increasing S-southeast winds tonight, gusting up to 20-25 kt
after midnight. Seas build up to 5-6 ft. Winds and seas highest
on the southern waters. Reduced visibility in areas of fog.
Scattered showers across the southern waters late tonight.

On Tuesday, S winds continue to increase, with gusts up to
30-35 kt. Seas continue to build, up to 6-9 ft. Visibility
restrictions develop in areas of locally heavy rain and patchy
fog. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Gale force wind gusts
likely Tue afternoon across most of the waters.

Outlook /Tuesday night through Saturday/...

Tuesday night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough
seas up to 11 ft. Rain, chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog.
Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt early. Rough
seas up to 12 ft. Rain, chance of thunderstorms, patchy fog.
Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.
Rain showers likely, rain, patchy fog.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of
rain showers.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

&&

Box watches/warnings/advisories...

CT...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to 11 am EDT Wednesday for
ctz002>004.
Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
morning for ctz002.
Massachusetts...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to 11 am EDT Wednesday for
maz002>024-026.
Flash Flood Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
morning for maz002-003-008>011.
Rhode Island...Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to 11 am EDT Wednesday for
riz001>008.
Marine...Gale Warning from noon Tuesday to 11 am EDT Wednesday for
anz231>234.
Gale Warning from 8 PM Tuesday to 9 am EDT Wednesday for
anz230-251.
Gale Warning from 2 PM Tuesday to 8 am EDT Wednesday for
anz236.
Gale Warning from 11 am Tuesday to 8 am EDT Wednesday for
anz235-237.
Gale Warning from noon Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for
anz250-254.
Gale Warning from 11 am Tuesday to 11 am EDT Wednesday for
anz255-256.

&&

$$

Synopsis...doody/evt
near term...doody/sipprell/evt

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