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fxus61 kbox 191915 
afdbox

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
215 PM EST sun Feb 19 2017

Synopsis...
a cold front will be followed by a brief cool down tonight into
Tuesday. Milder weather returns the middle of next week.
However, another pair of fronts may be accompanied by some
precipitation sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this
point, Thursday has potential to be the warmest day of the week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
unseasonably mild day across southern New England with temps ranging through the
50s and near 60 across portions of CT/Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. Mid level
shortwave dropping south across new eng will drive a cold front
through southern New England late afternoon and evening followed by a wind shift
to northwest and colder temperatures overnight. Lows will settle back
to the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds will become gusty across
the cape and islands with occasional gusts to 25-30 mph.

&&

Short term /Monday through Monday night/...
Monday...
mid level trof amplifies to the east of New England as
additional shortwave energy rotates through. This will result
in a dry but brisk northwest flow. The column is dry which will lead to
mostly sunny skies, but some ocean effect clouds will be moving
across the Outer Cape. Temps will be near seasonable normals,
generally upper 30s higher terrain to lower 40s elsewhere. Northwest
winds will gust to 20-25 mph at times.

Monday night...
strong high pres builds into new eng with clear skies and
diminishing wind. Good radiational cooling will result in a cold
night with lows dropping into the teens in the colder outlying
areas and 20s elsewhere.

&&

Long term /Tuesday through Sunday/...
highlights...

* seasonably cool Tuesday
* light rain/pockets of freezing rain possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday
* Thursday looks to be our warmest day
* more widespread rain possible Friday night into Saturday

Overview and model preferences...

General consensus is for amplified flow over the eastern half of
the USA to become more zonal toward mid week. Once this happens,
not expecting to see major temperature swings. In fact,
expecting trend of above normal temperatures to continue.

Still plenty of detail differences with timing of certain
features, which is not uncommon in nearly zonal flow scenarios.
While minor at first, these differences significantly grow with
time. Have low confidence in the details, after Friday.

Preferred a consensus approach to smooth over the less
predictable details, especially late this week.

Details...

Monday night into Tuesday...still quiet, with high pressure
overhead. Low risk for rain to arrive across western portions of
southern New England late in the day. Near normal temperatures.

Tuesday night into Wednesday...

Guidance converging on the idea of a brief period of rain, but
differ in their timing. GFS is fastest by about 6 hours. Most
likely window for precipitation looks to be Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning. With this timing, cannot completely rule out
the possibility of some sleet or freezing rain. These details
will need to be resolved over the next day or so.

A weak front should move back north, allowing temperatures to
rise above freezing, ending the threat of mixed precipitation.

Thursday into Friday morning...

A clipper-like low pressure should move through the Great Lakes.
Persistent southwest winds should lead to above normal
temperatures once more. Not a lot of moisture to the southeast
of this system, so thinking dry weather should prevail across
much of our region.

It's possible, if southwest winds become strong enough, for
Thursday to be the warmest day of this week. Will need to see
how much snow melts between now and then. The more snow which
melts, the more likely we could see a few locations approach 60
degrees.

Friday afternoon into Saturday...

Huge solution spread in the ensembles and deterministic
guidance. Have little confidence in the details, although there
is general agreement for a low pressure to move northeast near
the Great Lakes. Thus, expecting any precipitation would be
rain. Some signs this system could be energetic enough where
some thunderstorms would be a possibility.

&&

Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Monday night/...high confidence.

Mainly VFR. Some MVFR cigs may develop across the interior
tonight into Monday morning. Also some ocean effect MVFR cigs
possible across the Outer Cape and ack late tonight and lasting
through Mon night. Northwest gusts to 25 kt developing over the Outer
Cape/islands later tonight into Monday. Elsewhere, northwest gusts to
20 kt expected Monday. Diminishing wind becoming light Mon
night.

Kbos taf...high confidence in taf.

Kbdl taf...high confidence in taf.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...moderate confidence.

Tuesday...

Generally VFR. Winds diminish as a high pressure moves
overhead.

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...

A weak cold front approaches our region, with southwest winds out
ahead of it. This front is likely not to make it completely through
southern New England. Cigs and vsbys lower to MVFR in showers, then
improve to VFR after the front passes a location.

Thursday...

Weak front returns north as a warm front, but not a lot of
moisture to work with. VFR conditions expected.

&&

Marine...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Monday night/...high confidence.

Tonight...a surge of gusty northwest winds will develop behind a cold
front this evening with gusts 25-30 kt, strongest across eastern
waters.

Monday...winds gradually diminish below Small Craft Advisory by afternoon,
except across eastern waters where northerly gusts to 25 kt
will persist most of the day,

Monday night...some leftover northerly gusts to 25 kt eastern
waters in the evening, otherwise diminishing wind as high pres
builds into the waters.

Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...

Tuesday...high confidence. Rough seas and winds diminish.

Tuesday night into Wednesday...moderate confidence. Relatively
tranquil boating conditions. Scattered rain may lead to reduced
visibility at times.

Thursday...moderate confidence. Relatively tranquil boating
conditions continue.

&&

Box watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Rhode Island...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Monday for anz231-232.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 am to 1 PM EST Monday for
anz233>235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 am EST
Tuesday for anz250-254.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 am EST
Monday for anz251.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 am Monday to 1 am EST Tuesday for
anz255.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 am to 3 PM EST Monday for anz256.

&&

$$
Synopsis...kjc

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