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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
1000 am EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Synopsis...
mild, humid air builds across the region today into tonight out
ahead of the remnants of Cindy which will bring the threat of
heavy rain and possible flooding Saturday morning. A cold front
will sweep the remnants of Cindy out to sea through late Saturday,
improving overnight. Seasonably warm and less humid conditions
Sunday will be followed by cooler and somewhat unsettled weather
for early next week. Warmer conditions return for the latter half
of next week.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...

1000 am update...

Difficult forecast is on tap for today as guidance continues to
poorly handle current conditions. Isolated showers that were
across western Massachusetts moved northeastward towards the New Hampshire border.
These showers are in association with the Theta-E gradient and
the higher moisture transport. Thus this will push southern New England into a
very moist airmass for the remainder of the day.

Latest satellite imagery shows dry slot working its way across
CT and Rhode Island and towards Massachusetts. This is in association with dry air
in the mid-levels and lower k values. This break in the clouds
will help increase surface temps rather quickly into the 80s
over the next few hours. Biggest question, if these breaks of
clouds will be enough to trigger iso to sct showers and
thunderstorms. See a few popping up across upstate New York but lapse
rates are quiet poor over the region. Will continue to watch,
but believe a trying trend will be in favor for the rest of the
morning.

Attention then turns to showers across the mid-Atlantic/south
of long islands associated with weak wave. Will these continue
to develop and become more widespread? All the hi-res guidance
as well as the hrrr shows that this bulk of showers will begin
to fizzle thanks to very weak ridging aloft. Still expect a few
hit or miss from this system, but not as widespread as what is
currently occurring.

Any strong storm that does develop could result in some gusty
winds as low level jet is increasing aloft. However the main threat will
be heavy rain as precipitable waters are currently 1.7 inches with more
moisture on the way thanks to Cindy. Will continue to monitor
for any flood related products later today.

Previous discussion...

Showers and thunderstorms for the early half of the day,
potential for heavy rain. Consensus of forecast guidance has an
initial wave of tropical energy associated with Cindy sweeping
the region during the early half of the day. Collocated low-
level convergence of high Theta-east air per nose of h925-85 jet
beneath a pseudo h925-7 warm frontal boundary with parent mid-
level ascent. Especially if there is partial clearing in the
morning presenting the opportunity for the boundary layer to
destabilize, can see an opportunity where the present wave out
of the mid-Atlantic to maintain longevity, perhaps becoming
stronger. Thinking mainly across the interior north/west away from S
flow off the cooler ocean waters which would keep the surface
more capped. However forecast guidance not so robust. Increasing
moisture with precipitable waters rising towards 2 inches, 0-6
km bulk shear around 30 kts out of the SW, and cape around 1-2k
j/kg. Am going to lean with high chance pops north/west across the
interior. Think the high- res 3 km NAM and both WRF have the
right idea. S/east becoming socked in with low clouds, possible
fog, the region cooler at the surface is capped. May see some
showers, perhaps heavy, but greater concern is N/W. Looking at
the late morning into early afternoon period. Not so confident
on severe weather outcomes but agree with the marginal risk
advertised by Storm Prediction Center. Believe the main threat to be heavy rain and
frequent lightning, some localized nuisance flooding concerns,
with gusty winds and hail secondary threats.

The later half of the day looks to be dry. Behind the morning wave,
a combination of subsidence and mid-level warming around h6-8 puts
the squash on any additional wet-weather activity, stabilizing. If
throughout the day places remain partially clear, some locations
could see highs into the low 90s such as the Merrimack River valley.
Continued cool S/east under lower clouds, possible fog. Otherwise, main
theme for today is warm and muggy. Dewpoints well into the 60s, some
places near 70.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Saturday/...
tonight into Saturday...

Possibility of heavy rain, flooding associated with Cindy leftovers.
An anomalous tropical airmass surging NE out ahead of a cold front /
baroclinic zone. The tropical-moist plume converging with higher
Theta-east ahead of a mean long-wave trough axis at the mid-levels and
beneath decent diffluence within the upper levels, there is support
for deep layer forcing yielding efficient warm-rain processes with
freezing level heights at least above 10 kft, in this case around 14
kft. However outcomes are challenging to nail down and determine as
they can often be underestimated or misplaced by forecast guidance.
In the last several forecast runs, model solutions have waffled with
the remnants of Cindy. It makes for subsequent challenges as to the
possibility of flash flooding, if any one area is under particular
threat of seeing an excessive amount of rain in a short period of
time.

But with this forecast there is continued preference to the high-res
3 km NAM and WRF forecast model solutions. Suspect a possibility of
maintenance of shower, thunderstorm activity out of upstate New York and
PA across S New England during the evening hours. Convergent low-
level forcing of high Theta-east air beneath continued energy streaming
NE with the tropical-moist plume. Given the lack of diurnal heating,
main concern is the potential for heavy rainers, nuisance flooding.
Then around morning, crux of heavy rain is expected as the remnants
of Cindy clash with a cool front dropping S, clearing out through
the afternoon. The 3 km NAM and WRF-arw fit the forecast thinking,
that the broad tropical-moist plume though focused with remnants of
Cindy would also converge along the low to mid level cool front that
sweeps across the region through afternoon.

Low confidence at this point concerning exactly where the greatest
threat will be. Will continue to highlight possible flooding hazards
in the hazardous weather outlook. Can't rule out potential for rain-
fall rates of around an inch per hour and excessive rainfall amounts
greater than 2 inches storm-total. Low confidence with respect to
forecast grid rainfall amounts that add up around 0.50-0.75 inches
given the difficulty in determining exactly where the heaviest rainfall
will occur.

The cool front sliding through late in the day, will see potential
blustery SW winds depending on the ability to mix down, perhaps
brought down mechanically via heavy rain given a saturated profile
that is moist adiabatic. Prior to and throughout, low clouds and fog
will likely remain an issue for the S-coast with the possibility of
visibility down to a quarter mile or less requiring headlines. Will
monitor for now.

Behind the front winds back west and we begin to see partial clearing.
Temperatures difficult to forecast given some uncertainty on the
timing of the front and how quickly we clear out. Could warm into
the mid 80s but will keep it conservative with seasonable highs
around the upper 70s to low 80s. With the warm up may see some brief
breezy westerlies behind the front with boundary layer mixing.

&&

Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/...
highlights...

* seasonably warm and less humid on Sunday
* cooler and somewhat unsettled pattern for early next week with
showers possible at times
* warmer weather returns toward the end of next week

Overview...

Longwave trof over the gt lakes region will gradually slide east to
new eng Tue/Wed timeframe as multiple shortwaves rotate through the
flow. This will bring a somewhat unsettled pattern for the first
half of the week with cooler temps, near or a bit below normal.
Models signaling a pattern change for the end of the week as ridging
builds northward along the East Coast which should bring warmer
conditions for the end of next week.

Details...

Saturday night and Sunday...

Cold front expected to be moving off the coast Sat evening followed
by drier conditions during the night. Low risk of a lingering
evening shower for the cape/islands, otherwise clearing skies during
the night with cooler and much less humid airmass moving in.

The dry airmass will continue into Sunday with sunshine mixing with
diurnal cu in the afternoon. Fairly robust mid level shortwave will
move NE from the gt lakes with a secondary cold front moving into
southern New England. Brunt of shortwave energy passes to the north and west but
can't rule out a few showers developing in the interior in the
afternoon. 850 mb temps 12-13c and soundings indicate deep mixing on
Sunday above 850 mb so temps may overachieve. Expect highs reaching
low to mid 80s, except a bit cooler along the South Coast with SW
flow. Comfortable humidity levels with dewpoints in the 50s.

Monday into Wednesday...

Mid level trof gradually moves into new eng as series of shortwaves
rotate through the flow. Cooling temps aloft with 500 mb temps
reaching -18 to -20c will likely bring some diurnal showers at times
although certainly not a washout and expect a mix of clouds and sun.
Any showers Mon should be confined to the interior, but all areas
Tue as the trof moves into the region. Best chance for any thunder
will likely be Tue with tt into the lower 50s and 500 mb temps
approaching -20c. Upper trof begins to slide to the east on Wed.
Cold pool aloft lingers but moisture is limited so expect limited
coverage of any showers Wed. Temps slightly below normal with highs
mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

Thursday...

As mid level trof exits, rising heights into new eng as southeast US ridge
builds north. High pres moves off mid Atlc coast with good warm
advection. Warmer conditions expected with temps possibly reaching
well into the 80s in some locations.

&&

Aviation /14z Friday through Tuesday/...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Saturday/...moderate confidence.

Today...
IFR/LIFR stratus and fog along the S-coast with scattered-broken low-
end VFR elsewhere. Brief improvement possible at times along the
S-coast up to VFR but IFR may linger over the islands. S winds
around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts, strongest across
east/southeast New England. Initial showers moving through western new eng
this morning with more rain showers/thunderstorms and rain chances expected over north/west CT
and north/west MA, mainly afternoon into early evening. Tempo MVFR/IFR
with ra/+ra.

Tonight into Saturday...
MVFR-LIFR cigs with MVFR-IFR vsbys with br/fg. Rain showers/thunderstorms and rain early
tonight approaching from the west. Rain/+ra approaching from the SW
towards morning, exiting around midday ahead of a wind shift
from the west. Prior to the wind shift will continue to see SW
winds with potential gusts 25 to 30 kts low level wind shear possible for southeast
coastal terminals as is some embedded thunderstorms and rain. Improving towards
evening to low-end VFR / sky clear.

Kbos terminal...VFR today with gusty SW winds up to 25 kts,
lower cigs into this evening with increasing rain chances.

Kbdl terminal...may need to watch for possible rain showers/thunderstorms and rain northwest of
the terminals around late morning into early afternoon.
Otherwise low-end VFR cigs today with blustery SW winds that
will lower into evening prior to onset of ra/+ra.

Outlook /Saturday night through Tuesday/...high confidence.

Sunday and Monday...mainly VFR with sct-bkn diurnal clouds. A few
diurnal showers possible in the interior

Tuesday...mainly VFR cigs with a few showers/isolated T-storms
possible.

&&

Marine...
forecaster confidence levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Saturday/...

1000 am update...went ahead an issued a Small Craft Advisory for bos Harbor and
Narragansett Bay. Winds gusts of 25 kts are possible during the
later half of the day.

SW winds on the increase with gusts up to 25 to 30 kts through
early Saturday prior to a cool frontal passage. Waves building
around 5 to 6 feet on the waters as the remnants of Cindy are
advected NE across the waters around Saturday morning. Prior to
and during this time, likely to be either a combination of low
clouds and fog with visibility down to a quarter mile or less
possible. Improving late Saturday as winds become westerly while
beginning to diminish along with wave action.

Outlook /Saturday night through Tuesday/...high confidence.

Sunday...increasing SW flow but speeds should remain below Small Craft Advisory with
a few gusts 20-22 kt nearshore waters in the afternoon.

Monday and Tuesday...quiet boating weather with winds and seas below
Small Craft Advisory.

&&

Tides/coastal flooding...
astronomical tides are rather high through this weekend during the
night time cycles. Boston has a 12.3 ft tide just before midnight
tonight, a 12.4 ft high tide around midnight Sat night and 12.2 ft
just after midnight Sun night. Fortunately, offshore winds are
forecast with minimal or no surge so do not anticipate any issues.

&&

Box watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Rhode Island...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 am EDT
Saturday for anz231>234.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this
evening for anz230-236.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
Saturday for anz235-237.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 am EDT
Saturday for anz250.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
Saturday for anz254>256.

&&

$$
Synopsis...kjc/sipprell
near term...dunten/sipprell

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