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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Taunton Massachusetts
439 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016

mild temperatures and less wind will return on Saturday as a high
pressure ridge moves across the area. Low pressure approaches
Sunday, with a period of rain possible in the afternoon and
evening. High pressure delivers dry, but cooler, weather Monday.
Temperatures moderate Tuesday as this high moves offshore, with
Wednesday likely being the mildest day next week. Another cold
front Ushers in a cooler airmass late next week, with a chance for
more showers.


Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
4 PM update...the low pressure system that brought rain, snow, and
wind to our area yesterday and this morning has moved eastward to
south of the Maine coast. It has intensified as it has moved
eastward, resulting in gusty northwesterly winds for much of the
area. Winds in southeastern Massachusetts are still working on
shifting over to the northwest.

Tonight...low pressure is pushed into the Maritimes as high pressure
in the mid-Atlantic builds northward into southern New England.
During this transition, northwest winds will increase with the strongest
winds across Cape Ann, Cape Cod, and the islands. The Wind Advisory
continues for these locations through 11 PM tonight. Winds diminish
through the remainder of the night, though likely not quickly enough
to allow for any radiational cooling. Temperatures will remain on
the not as cool side overnight with lows ranging from the mid 30s in
the northwestern zones to the mid 40s on the cape and islands.


Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Saturday night/...
trending towards a little bit quieter weather for Saturday. High
pressure weakens to the south and low pressure moves into Quebec.
The cold front trailing the low will remain to our north during the
day Saturday, allowing for a very pleasant, seasonable, late October
day. High temperatures will be in the lower 50s in the northwestern
zones to the mid 50s across much of the rest of the area. Only fly
in the ointment will be some gusty SW winds that will make it feel a
bit cooler.

The cold front will move through the area Saturday night, but should
be mainly dry as it GOES through. The main impact will be a wind
shift from southwest to northwest and a few gusts to go along with
it. Not expecting winds to be high enough to cause damage, more
along the lines of 25 to 30 mph. With the wind staying up, expect
low temperatures to be rather mild.


Long term /Sunday through Friday/...

* seasonable much of this time, coolest Mon and warmest Wed
* chance of rain Sunday aftn/evening, and again Thursday
aftn/night, otherwise mainly dry

Saturday night...

Weak cold front moves across the area. Deep layer moisture and lift
are still lacking. So, other than a spot shower, mainly dry weather
prevails Sat night. Temperatures should start out mild with potent
warm air advection ahead of a stronger cold front, which should
arrive later Sunday.


Latest guidance has come into better agreement with the timing and
location of a secondary low pressure along a front just south of
New England. This low pressure should pass by our region Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. The result will be a period where we
could see more rain. The greatest chance for rain will be toward
the South Coast, which will be closer to the low pressure.

Next week...

Monday...a low pressure departs, and a high pressure starts to
build in from the west. The northerly flow will make this the
coldest day of this portion of the forecast. Expecting drier
weather with clearing skies.

Tuesday...this high pressure drifts offshore, resulting in a
warming south to southwest flow. Seasonable temperatures more
likely. Low risk of a spot shower, mainly along and north of Route
2 Tuesday night.

Wednesday...high pressure off to our east should still be close
enough to provide mainly dry weather. Temperatures continue to
rise with persistent southwest flow to start the day. A weak cold
front should approach late in the day, but there is not much
humidity with it. The result should be mainly clouds.

Thursday...expecting a low pressure to move along this front
toward our region. It may arrive Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night, with another chance for some rain.

Friday...should be both cooler and drier, as strong high pressure
over the central USA gains more influence over our weather.


Aviation /20z Friday through Wednesday/...
forecaster confidence levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Saturday night/...

Through 00z...moderate confidence. A mix of conditions is expected
through the end of the day. IFR conditions in NE MA, MVFR across
much of the area, and VFR in the CT valley. Scattered -shra across
eastern Massachusetts/Rhode Island will temporarily lower conditions. Northwest winds will
continue to be gusty with gusts ranging from 25 to 30 kts in the CT
valley to 35 to 40 kts across the cape and islands. Highest gusts
will be right around 00z.

Tonight...high confidence on trends, lower confidence on timing.
Gusty northwest winds will diminish through the night, particularly after
about 03z. Otherwise, conditions at all locations will improve to

Saturday and Saturday night...high confidence. VFR conditions
continue. There is a low probability of a shower or two Saturday
afternoon. SW to west winds become gusty (up to 25 kts) along the
South Coast, cape, and islands Saturday night.

Kbos taf...high confidence in taf.

Kbdl taf...high confidence in taf.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday...moderate confidence.

VFR likely Saturday night along with dry weather. Then MVFR
possible Sunday afternoon and evening in a period of rain.

Monday-Wednesday...high confidence.

VFR, with mainly dry weather.


forecaster confidence levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Saturday night/...high confidence.

Gale warnings remain in effect for the eastern coastal waters. Small
craft advisories are up for the remainder of the waters, mainly
south of Rhode Island and Buzzards Bay and Nantucket. Northwesterly winds
will diminish after 11 PM tonight with gales needing to be replaced
by small craft advisories. Winds should diminish below 25 kts by
Saturday morning. However, seas will remain above 5 feet on the
outer waters through the remainder of the period.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday...moderate confidence.

Light west-northwest winds as a weak cold front moves south across the
waters. Then, winds become east-northeast as low pressure tracks along this
front from west to east. Vsby will lower to 1-3 miles in rain
Sunday afternoon and evening...then improving late at night.

Monday-Wednesday...high confidence.

North winds Monday 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt possible. Could
be a few ocean-effect rain showers. North winds will build seas
across the eastern Massachusetts waters. Diminishing winds Monday night into
Tuesday morning, as a high pressures crests over the region. Then
winds becoming south late Tuesday. Southwest winds to start
Wednesday, becoming northwest late as a weak cold front crosses
the waters.


Box watches/warnings/advisories...
Massachusetts...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for maz007-022>024.
Rhode Island...none.
Marine...Gale Warning until 2 am EDT Saturday for anz231-232-250-254-
Small Craft Advisory until 2 am EDT Saturday for anz230-233-
Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EDT Saturday for anz235-237.
Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for anz251-256.


near term...rlg
short term...rlg
long term...Belk

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