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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
842 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

issued at 842 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Radar picking up a few weak showers over park and Lincoln
counties. Last few visible satellite images showed a little
vertical growth to the clouds over Lincoln County. Not enough
instability for thunder though. Will go with low pops, less than
20 percent, through midnight. The rap and hrrr are also indicating
isolated showers are possible here. Only other change will be to
tweak cloud cover a little higher for the increase in clouds.


Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 423 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Dry air will be over Colorado through Thursday, with a bit drier
air aloft mixing to the surface in the afternoon. This should keep
convection to a minimum, though we should at least get some cloud
cover again and perhaps a few weak showers/storms.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 423 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Models have trended a bit faster with the cold front on Friday,
bringing Richer moisture back into the plains but not a lot of
cooling. This will increase the chance of thunderstorms, with some
severe potential if the moisture/heat balance winds up being
right. Since it's usually tricky to get this to work out, the
marginal risk on the eastern plains in the Storm Prediction Center outlook looks good
at this time. Further west it will still be warm and dry, with a
bit more wind.

Saturday looks to be a recovery day behind the cold front, with
temperatures getting nearly as warm as Friday by the end of the
day. Given the initial stability, low pops are in order, but there
is potential for more in it warms up enough as the plains should
still have good moisture.

Fair consistency on an upper low moving over The Rockies at about
our latitude Sunday and Monday. Much will hinge on the exact path,
as there will likely be decent precipitation on the north side of
this system. Our blended forecast guidance has a gradient in
moisture across our area, with a better chance of significant rain
over the northern border and eastern parts of our area. Whether or
not there is substantial rain or severe weather will depend on how
much the low levels cool and the timing of the lift. Right now the
cooler solutions are showing highs around 70 on Sunday, while the
warmer/drier ones only drop to around 80. Somewhere in between
with the moisture might be a Sweet spot for thunderstorms. For now
the blended solution of cooler with a pretty good chance for rain
at some point across most of the area will do.

Ridging behind the trough will lead to a warm/dry southwest flow
aloft by midweek. It could be back to Summer temperatures, though
soil moisture may take the edge off of the heat if we get another
round of rain before then.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 842 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

VFR through Thursday. Northeast winds will slowly turn east and
end up a southerly direction after 06z. A period of west winds is
possible at kden Thursday morning, but speeds will be under 10
knots. Little or no thunderstorm activity Thursday afternoon.


Fire weather...
issued at 423 PM MDT Wed Jun 20 2018

Conditions may approach red flag criteria in South Park on Friday
afternoon. It should be dry enough, but the wind speeds are
uncertain. Across the rest of the mountains it will be warm and
dry Thursday and Friday with some afternoon breezes, but not as
much as in South Park.


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...



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