Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
354 PM MDT Tuesday Aug 30 2016

Short term...(this evening through wednesday)
issued at 353 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Very weak flow is present over northeast Colorado this afternoon
as a decaying upper level low drifts northeastward. The moist
airmass over the state has become slightly unstable due to
afternoon heating with slow moving showers over the foothills and
plains. Moderate to heavy rain has been accompanying the storms.
Additional shower activity is expected through the early evening
as outflow boundaries collide. By midnight, most shower activity
should be finished. Abundant low level moisture should form areas
of fog and low clouds, mainly along the South Platte river.

Tomorrow, weak flow aloft will continue over eastern Colorado,
setting the stage for another afternoon of scattered and slow
moving thunderstorms. Temperatures will be similar to what they
were today. Possible heavy rain from slow moving thunderstorms
will be the main threat.

Long term...(wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 353 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Weak subsidence is moving in Wednesday evening as ridge axis
slowly builds in from the north. As a result, any lingering
convective showers and storms are expected to diminish rather
quickly with the loss of daytime heating.

On Thursday, the flow aloft turns more west/southwesterly on the
back side of the ridge as it begins to shift east into the Central
Plains. This will bring a little drier air onto the plains with
precipitable water values and the chance of convection
decreasing. Still can't totally rule out late day storms in the
lower elevations with a late approach of a short wave, but overall
most showers and storms would be confined to the high country.
Friday should see better shower and thunderstorm coverage due to
passage of the upper level disturbance and surge of mid/upper
level moisture from the southwest. That moisture plume could
remain in tact into Saturday but overall drier and mild conditions
are expected to prevail for the Labor Day weekend.

Temperatures will warm back to or above seasonal normals and then
remain there through Sunday. Then we should see a weak front with
slight cooling to near or below normal levels toward Labor Day and


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 353 PM MDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Areas of rain across the plains this evening will be adding to the
low level moisture content in the South Platte River Valley. The
light wind pattern overnight is expected to turn into a bit of a
weak Denver cyclone which will be able to advect this low level
moisture toward the northern parts of Denver. Areas of fog and low
clouds may develop over southern Weld County after midnight and
then move close to kden and kbjc around sunrise. Will mention some
fog and low clouds for a few hours at those airports.

For the rest of this evening, showers and thunderstorms on the
plains have been very slow to move. Outflow boundaries from storms
over northern Weld County should reach kden in the next 60 to 90
minutes which could produce some showers over the Denver Metro
area through about 7 PM. Heavy rain will be the primary threat
from the storms, but ceilings and visibilities will also be lower.
No other aviation impacts are expected.


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...dankers
long term...barjenbruch

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations