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afdbou

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
355 am MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 355 am MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Another warm and dry day for US today as very dry air remains over
Colorado with moderate westerly flow aloft. Still probably a few
high clouds, but minimal this morning and then probably a bit more
tonight. Temperatures should be about the same as yesterday, then
possibly slightly warmer tonight with a little cloud and a bit
more wind--though the dry air has allowed for 50 degree diurnal
swings in the valleys and tonight should still be close to that.
I did lower tonight's lows a bit, mainly in the mountains.

Long term...(wednesday through monday)
issued at 355 am MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

A moderate westerly flow aloft will be over the region Wednesday
morning. Breezy conditions will be possible near the foothills
around 12z Wednesday with nam12 spatial cross-sections showing
the potential for pre-frontal wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range.
A dry cool front is then expected to clip the northeast plains
around 18z then shift eastward. The only impact from this front
will be regards to the wind direction. Otherwise a dry westerly
flow aloft will allow for continued mild conditions Wednesday
afternoon. The flow aloft will weaken Wednesday afternoon and
Wednesday night as the ridge axis shifts over Colorado and a weak
short wave trough moves into the Great Basin. The flow aloft will
increase from the southwest Thursday and Thursday night as this
weak system shifts across the area overnight. The models show a
developing Lee side surface trough along the Front Range, with
gusty southerly winds Thursday afternoon over the NE plains. The
fire danger will be highest at this time due to the combination
of gusty winds 20-25 mph, very warm temperatures in the mid 70s,
and min relative humidities around 20 percent. Although the fire
danger will be elevated, those parameters are not in the very high
to extreme category yet so fire weather highlights not
anticipated at this time. No relief from the passing trough as the
models show little if any qpf over the mountains. Another
unseasonably mild afternoon expected on Friday. An increasing
southwesterly flow is progged ahead of a stronger trough moving
into the Pacific northwest and northern rockies. The trough will
move across Montana and Wyoming Friday night into Saturday
morning. Weak to moderate mid level qg ascent is progged over
northern Colorado with showers and gusty west to northwest winds
as the trough axis passes across the cwa. Some lingering showers
Saturday morning, with temperatures 15-20 degrees cooler than
those on Friday. Sunday through Tuesday, a ridge will build over
the West Coast with a moderate to strong northwesterly flow aloft
over Colorado. Temperatures are expected to climb back in the 60s, with
gusty winds at times especially in the mountains and foothills.

&&

Aviation...(for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 355 am MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR through tonight.

&&

Bou watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

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