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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
236 PM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Short term...(this evening through saturday)
issued at 220 PM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Current satellite imagery showing continued diminishing cloud
cover over the plains. Temperatures have gotten above the previous
record of 80s degrees set in 1994 with lower 80s further east.
Over the mountains cloud cover will increase through the evening
as an approaching trough will bring a slight chance of showers to
the mountains mainly north of I-70 and the Park Range. Wet bulb
zero temperatures will stay elevated but some rain and snow
mixture will be possible down to 10,000 feet with rain below that.
The plains will stay dry but increasing clouds overnight will keep
low temperatures in the lower 50s. With the moisture moving into the
mountains combined with increasing westerly winds isentropic
packing will increase allowing for another mountain wave to form
by tomorrow morning that will persist into the afternoon.
Temperatures for Saturday will be cooler with passage of a weak
front with highs in the mid 70s and 40s in the mountains.
Continued dry conditions combined with breezy conditions continue
to increase fire concerns over the plains.

Long term...(saturday
night through friday) issued at 220 PM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

The strong high pressure ridge responsible for
the dry and unseasonably warm weather of the past
several days is projected to weaken midweek with
the passage of a weakly organized upper trough
tethered to a closed low over the nrn Baja
Peninsula. Moisture appears limited at all levels
with this system and the bulk of the forcing for
ascent passes over Wyoming. In addition...models
also show a weak sfc cold front sliding down acrs
nern Colorado tues night ushering in cooler
temperatures for Wednesday. Any cloud formation
with this frontal boundary should be limited due
to the dry environment in place. Cooler temps on
tap for Wed and Thu will still be above average
but only by a few degs. During the day Thu models
show the upper ridge regaining strength over the
rocky mtn region aided by the potent upper level
trough moving onshore out west. At the same time
some of the models show the closed low over
Arizona lifting northeast towards The Four
Corners region. Its possible southwestern sections
of the County Warning Area could begin feeling the effects of this
system by late on Thu in the form of increased cloud
cover and showers chances.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 220 PM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. A weak Denver
cyclone will keep winds a challenge through the evening hours.
Light and variable winds will persist before turning north-northwest by 23z
then transitioning to drainage this evening. A persistent upper
level broken deck will continue through Saturday afternoon as mid
level moisture levels stay elevated with the incoming upper trough
and mountain wave.


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...


Short term...Bowen
long term...Baker

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