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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
1028 am MDT Monday Aug 29 2016

issued at 1028 am MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

No need to make any changes to the forecast package at this time.
Short range models continue to show the best precipitation to our
south and farther to the east. Better low level moisture is
present over southeast Colorado while the weak upper level
circulation drifts over the state and loses its definition. Cloud
cover over the northeast plains should be increasing through the
afternoon as the high level moisture rotates around the upper low.
With the increasing cloud cover, afternoon temperatures should
peak in the lower and mid 80s.


Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 333 am MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

An upper level low currently over northwest New Mexico will lift
northeast across Colorado today and weaken. Airmass will again be
somewhat moist with precipitable water values ranging from a half
inch over the higher terrain to one inch over the eastern plains.
Cape will generally be less than 500 j/kg today and shear will be
weak. So expect the main threat from the storms to be heavy rain,
small hail, and wind gusts to 40 mph. There will be drier air over
the northern mountains and northern Front Range. This will result
in less instability and just isolated convection. Will have the
highest pops along and south of Interstate 70 and across the
eastern plains where the best instability will reside.

Skies will be mostly cloudy today due to the mid and high level
moisture. This will help keep temperatures slightly cooler today
with highs in the lower to mid 80s across northeast Colorado. The
warmest temperatures are expected over far northern Colorado where
fewer clouds are expected.

Convection will decrease mid to late evening and is expected to end
around or just after midnight as the airmass stabilizes. Cloudy
skies should keep overnight lows mild. However, northern areas may
see some clearing resulting in cooler temperatures.

Long term...(tuesday through sunday)
issued at 333 am MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Tuesday through Wednesday...a broad upper level ridge axis will be
over the rocky mtn region...with a weak west-southwesterly flow
aloft over Colorado. The models still show subtropical moisture across
eastern new mx and stretches it northeast into Nebraska/Kansas.
At the surface generally east/sely winds both days. Not much
change overall with enough moisture in the aftn to fire off some
deep convection. Best coverage will be over north central
mountains...Palmer Divide and far eastern plains. Increasing
subsidence and drier air over the northwestern part of the state
should help to cap tstms there. The ridge amplifies and its axis
shifts to the east on Thursday and Friday...with some subtropical
moisture more over southern and western Colorado. As a result...the
airmass over the northeast plains should be drier and warmer. The
flow aloft should increase FM the southwest on Friday with a
trough moving near the Pacific northwest. A stronger southwesterly
flow aloft will continue into the weekend with limited mid level
moisture over the state. As a pops through
expected through the weekend as well.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1028 am MDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Mid and high clouds will persist over the area through today and
tonight. Ceilings should remain above 9000 feet. A few
thunderstorms are expected over the southern portions of Denver
with the best time frame between 22z and 02z. At kden, have backed
off to vcts, since most of the shower activity will be over the
Palmer Divide, affecting the southwestern and southeastern gates.


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...meier
long term...Cooper

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