Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder Colorado
927 PM MDT sun Jul 24 2016

issued at 902 PM MDT sun Jul 24 2016

Storms have exited the eastern plains with only isolated showers
and storms lingering in Park County. A couple of these could still
spill onto the Palmer Divide but overall expect dry conditions for
the rest of tonight. Earlier rainfall and moist low level
southeast flow will likely bring some patchy fog to portions of
the eastern plains, perhaps as far back as Weld County where more
significant rain fell in a few spots.


Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 413 PM MDT sun Jul 24 2016

Current batch of storms making the most of The Pocket of best
instability just north and east of Denver. Less instability
further east but still good inflow and plenty of moisture to keep
storms going as they move eastward. Severe threat should shift
from hail to wind over the next couple of hours and then diminish.
Further south and west we had a few near severe wind gusts with
the storms on the south side of Denver...should be less intensity
from now on in the drier air. Lots of weak convection upstream
again but should diminish with loss of heating...enough to give
some cloud cover again for much of the night.

For Monday...subtle differences again. Slightly drier/warmer air
moving in from the west aloft...but still decent moisture over the
east and we will have made some recovery from yesterday cold
front. So expecting a similar pattern of scattered weak convection
over the mountains...less activity over the Front Range
cities...and then perhaps more on the plains in the evening again.

Main change was to increase the probability of precipitation across the northeast for this
evening as we had a minima there. May need to be bumped up further
if the current storms congeal into a better line.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 413 PM MDT sun Jul 24 2016

The long term period will be dominated by daily afternoon and
evening thunderstorms across the forecast area with near to above
normal temperatures.

A few thunderstorms will continue Monday evening, with a few
stronger storms possible over the far eastern plains as a jet near
the area travels over the upper ridge. An upper shortwave trough
will move over the state Tuesday bringing warmer temperatures in
southwest flow ahead of it. Afternoon storms over the mountains
will spread east over the plains with the better chance over the
far eastern plains where better moisture will exist. As the
shortwave passes into Kansas late Tuesday night and northwest flow
aloft establishes over Colorado, a cold front is progged to push
south into the area Wednesday with upslope flow expected through
the day. Increased stability and drier air pushing in from the
northwest will limit chances of storm coverage, especially in the
high country.

The upper high will remain over southern Utah and northern
Arizona into the weekend to keep northwest flow aloft. A couple
pieces of energy will move out of Canada to push in cooler air
into the plains Thursday and Friday for temperatures back near
normal. Temperatures will warm again through the weekend as the
ridge becomes established again. Moisture under the ridge will
continue to bring afternoon and evening storms to the area
Thursday through the weekend.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 926 PM MDT sun Jul 24 2016

Thunderstorm threat exited to the east earlier this evening.
Enhanced thunderstorm outflow east/southeast winds with gusts to
around 25 knots at kden will gradually relax and turn to a normal
south/southwest winds in the 05z-09z time frame. In the meantime,
patchy stratus is developing in the 1200-2200 foot layer in the
moist upslope flow. At this time, ceilings are most favored near
the Cheyenne Ridge with flow turning more southerly overnight. Otherwise
VFR conditions will persist with patchy fog possible north of
kden 10z-13z. Isolated thunderstorms expected after 22z Monday
with chance at 20 percent or less. Higher chance would be over the
Palmer Divide area just south of kden and kapa.


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...


short term...gimmestad
long term...kriederman

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations