Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Boise Idaho
952 am MDT Sat Jul 23 2016
Discussion...a weak upper level trough over the area will bring
another day of below normal temperatures to southeast Oregon and
southwest Idaho. Breezy conditions this afternoon in the upper
Treasure valley east of Mountain Home and across the western
Magic Valley. Full sun expected today except for a few mid and
high clouds across the north. No updates this morning.
Aviation...VFR with mostly clear skies tonight through Sunday.
Expect smoke layers in the central Idaho mountains northeast of
Idaho City, especially from the Lowman area east to Stanley.
Surface winds west-northwest 12 kts or less, except 10-20 kts
through the Snake River Plain kmuo and east, diminishing to 5-10 kts
before 06z and remaining light through Sunday. Winds aloft through
10k ft msl west 10-20 kts, diminishing to 5-15 kts early Sunday.
short term...today through Sunday...temperatures will be 5-10
degrees below normal today in the wake of yesterday's cold front.
As our upper level flow changes from west today to northwest
tonight and then to southwest Sunday, warmer air will start to
move back into the region. Highs Sunday will be near normal. No
precipitation is in the forecast. Winds are expected to be breezy
from around Mountain Home east through the western Magic Valley
this afternoon, but otherwise will be typical for this time of
Long term...Sunday night through Friday...mostly zonal flow over
the Pacific northwest at least through Wednesday which will keep
temperatures around the upper 90s. High pressure over The Four
Corners region will begin to build northward along the Sierra
Nevada mountains on Thursday. Temperatures will slowly increase
next weekend as a thermal low develops over southwest Idaho.
Temperatures will exceed 100 f degrees by Friday and could reach
102-106 f degrees in the lower valleys by Saturday depending on
the location of the thermal low. No chance for precipitation
previous short term...snow pellets
previous long term....js