Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
542 am CST Wed Nov 22 2017
for 12z aviation.
today and tonight.
A broad upper trof covered the eastern half of the United States.
A short wave trof will pass through Alabama today and pull deeper
Gulf moisture northeast across northern Florida. The deeper
moisture will not likely get close enough to southeast Alabama to
produce any rainfall. Some lingering mainly mid to high level
clouds will remain across east and southeast Alabama today in
advance of the short wave trof, but drier air at the the mid
levels of the atmosphere will advect into central Alabama, keeping
the area rain free today and tonight.
Low level cold air advection will increase today as the short wave
trof passes to the east of Alabama. Temperatures will be cooler
than yesterday due north winds around 10 mph. With mostly clear
skies and light winds tonight, temperatures will likely fall below
freezing for areas along and north of I-59.
Thanksgiving day through Tuesday.
An elongated upper-level trough is expected to extend from the
Ohio Valley southward over Alabama and the Gulf of Mexico on
Thanksgiving day. At the surface, an area of broad and weak low
pressure should be located across the eastern Gulf of Mexico with
cool high pressure to the northwest. Rain associated with the low
pressure system will affect the Florida Panhandle, south Georgia,
and possibly extreme southeast Alabama. The forecast for our
coverage area currently remains dry for Thanksgiving day, but a
few stray showers could sneak into our far southeast counties.
Behind this system, rain-free conditions will prevail on Friday.
Northwest flow aloft will bring a dry cold front our way on
Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures should be noticeably
cooler on Sunday with highs 5-8 degrees cooler than Saturday.
Widespread low to mid 30s are expected for morning lows on Monday
as high pressure moves into the region. A warming trend should
begin on Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday as higher
heights move into the region.
12z taf discussion.
VFR conds expected thru the period. A low level high pressure
system will build into Alabama today and produce north winds
10-15 mph. The north winds will also advect drier air into the
area and only mid to high level clouds are forecast, mainly across
The forecast features dry conditions and near normal temperatures
through the weekend and into early next week. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 58 32 59 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Anniston 61 35 62 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 58 33 61 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 59 32 61 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Calera 59 34 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Auburn 64 42 63 43 64 / 0 0 10 0 0
Montgomery 65 38 65 41 66 / 0 0 10 0 0
Troy 67 42 65 44 66 / 10 0 10 0 0