Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 kbmx 271143 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
643 am CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

for 12z aviation.



The threat for severe storms this afternoon and evening remains on
track as a broad upper-level trough continues to move eastward
from the arklatex. Pre-frontal storms are expected to develop by
early afternoon in eastern MS and move into west and northwest Alabama
as the upper trough axis moves through. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 j/kg
and 0-6 km shear of 35-45 kts along with abundant dry air aloft,
should support a threat for hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and
damaging winds with clusters and supercell structures. The best
chance for severe storms should be near and northwest of I-59 with
a lesser threat extending as far south and east as I-85. With the
cold front still to our west and a modest low-level jet in place,
additional showers/storms could continue tonight and into
Tuesday. The severe threat should come to an end around 9 PM
tonight as the best deep-layer shear moves out.

Wednesday continues to look warm and drier as a 500 mb ridge
amplifies over the region ahead of yet another upper trough which
will affect our area on Thursday into Thursday night. Confidence
is slightly lower than 24 hours ago regarding the threat for
severe storms due to model inconsistency with the upper trough
and a less impressive warm sector. We will continue to maintain a
low-end threat for damaging winds, large hail, and maybe a few
brief tornadoes.

After a break on Friday and Saturday, the hits keep on coming.
Another strong storm system could impact the area late Sunday into
Monday. A severe weather threat cannot be ruled out, especially if
the system takes a more northerly track, reducing the chance of
coastal convection blocking the inland progression of instability.



12z taf discussion.

Generally MVFR clouds out there this morning. These should lift by
16 to 17z and then we will quickly warm up ahead of the next
system. Tried to time out the thunderstorm development across the
northern sites and included in tempo for sites from west to east.
Next set of tafs will have a good handle on the timing as much of
the activity should have developed or will be developing by that
time. Rinse and repeat again overnight, but went with just MVFR
for now since we still have not gotten IFR conditions despite the
models best effort.



Fire weather...

Central Alabama will remain in a warm and moist pattern through the
middle of next week, with the highest rain chances today and
Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through
the next 7 days.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 78 60 78 54 81 / 60 70 40 10 20
Anniston 79 61 78 57 82 / 50 50 40 10 20
Birmingham 79 62 78 58 83 / 60 60 40 10 20
Tuscaloosa 81 63 80 59 85 / 50 60 40 10 10
Calera 78 63 78 59 84 / 50 50 30 10 20
Auburn 78 61 78 60 83 / 30 40 30 10 20
Montgomery 82 63 83 60 86 / 30 40 30 10 10
Troy 81 61 82 60 86 / 30 20 30 10 10


Bmx watches/warnings/advisories/...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations