Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
346 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017
tonight through Wednesday.
Front number one has passed central Alabama with west and
northwest winds behind it. An area of Post frontal cloudiness
continues its trek west to east and will also gradually decrease
in size through the evening hours. Expect mostly clear conditions
later this evening. Another sharper cold front will move through
the area late tonight as the upper levels remain active. These
fronts come courtesy of a deepening eastern conus trough and
associated cold air advection regime. Temperatures on Tuesday
close to mondays conditions north, except much less cloudiness.
Southern areas will be near 70 and below normal. The Heart of the
cold punch will drop highs to near 60 Wednesday which is well
below normal for late October. Overnight lows will be near 50 in
most places tonight, cooler in the sheltered valleys north.
Wednesday morning will be the coolest, with the north 35 to 40
degrees and south around 40. Take the necessary precautions if you
have any sensitive plants outside.
Tuesday through Monday.
A transition to warmer conditions is expected on Thursday and
Friday as southerly flow develops in response to a large trough
forming in the western Continental U.S.. model spread has tightened a bit on
the arrival time of the next front, ranging from Friday afternoon
into early Saturday morning. The European model (ecmwf) continues to show a solid
band of rain along the front, while the GFS has been waffling
between dry and wet. The forecast will lean toward the wetter
solution with the highest rain chances centered on Saturday and
Saturday evening. If the wetter solution verifies, temperatures
may not rise out of the 40s/50s on Saturday behind the front. The
cold airmass should continue to pour into the region on Sunday and
Sunday night, potentially setting the stage for our first frost
and/or freeze of the season.
18z taf discussion.
Surface cold front has pushed east into Georgia late this morning.
MVFR cigs will persist at most sites through late afternoon
followed by gradual clearing overnight. Winds will vary from the
west to the northwest this afternoon then gradually decrease this
evening. Clear skies expected overnight though recent rainfall
with light winds may encourage localized reduction in visibility
at eastern sites, added 5sm at asn/anb at this time. VFR
conditions expected on Tuesday.
Another cold front moves through overnight. Dry conditions are
anticipated the next several days. Relative humidity values
should remain above critical thresholds, but breezy conditions are
expected Tuesday afternoon. There are no fire weather concerns.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 49 63 37 58 38 / 10 0 0 0 0
Anniston 49 65 37 59 38 / 10 0 0 0 0
Birmingham 50 65 40 60 42 / 0 0 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 50 67 41 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Calera 49 66 40 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Auburn 50 67 42 61 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 50 70 41 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Troy 51 69 43 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 0