Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
300 PM CDT Monday Jul 25 2016
Drier air aloft will continue to keep rain chances a bit lower than
normal this afternoon/evening. Best chances remain across the east,
with only isolated activity possible in the west. Skies will be
mostly clear tonight with lows in the low/mid 70s.
Central Alabama will remain between two upper ridges...one centered
over the dessert southwest and the other just off the Atlantic
Seaboard...through mid week. A relative weakness between the ridges
will allow for scattered convection each afternoon/evening. A weak
upper low will shift west-northwest across the northern Gulf and into
Louisiana/Texas by late Tuesday. Best rain chances on Tuesday will
be across the southern counties closer to the passing low pressure
area to our south. On Wednesday, expect best chances to shift to the
western counties closer to the north-south oriented low pressure
axis near/just west of the MS river.
The Atlantic ridge slowly breaks down late week with upper troughing
shifting eastward closer to the forecast area. Expect generally
scattered convection to persist each day with the highest pops
across the north/northwest portions of central Alabama, which will be in
closer proximity to the approaching upper trough. Upper troughing
will be in place across the eastern Continental U.S. Over the weekend with
several impulses riding eastward within the westerlies. This could
lead to increased rain chances for our area on both Saturday and
Temperatures will generally remain a couple degrees above normal
through the period, with highs mostly in the low/mid 90s. With dew
points primarily staying in the low 70s, heat indices could rise
into the 100-105 degree range each afternoon.
18z taf discussion.
Afternoon satellite and obs show VFR conditions across the entire
cwa, with a few cumulus developing in the eastern Georgia/Alabama border and
the rest of the region observing small altocumulus. Any shower
activity seen on radar in Georgia has dissipated before crossing
over. Low precip chances are forecasted for the afternoon, but any
anomalous development that does occur, will remain isolated and
thunder free. Winds are expected to remain out of the southeast
until the evening, where the may become lighter and more southerly
in the early evening and more variable in the overnight hours.
Calm sky conditions are expected after sunset and will persist
through the night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next
several days with highs in the 90s. Surface winds will be rather
light and generally from the south then southeast, although some
variability will also exist. Since surface dew points are so high,
critical fire weather thresholds are not expected to be met with
no watches or warnings anticipated.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 73 93 74 92 72 / 20 30 20 40 30
Anniston 73 93 74 92 73 / 20 30 20 40 20
Birmingham 76 94 76 92 74 / 20 30 20 40 30
Tuscaloosa 74 94 74 92 73 / 20 30 30 40 30
Calera 74 93 74 92 73 / 20 30 20 40 20
Auburn 74 92 74 91 73 / 20 30 20 30 20
Montgomery 74 95 75 93 74 / 20 40 20 40 20
Troy 72 92 72 90 72 / 20 40 20 40 20