Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kbmx 272344
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
644 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017
for 00z aviation.
tonight and Tuesday.
Very unstable conditions have developed over central Alabama this
afternoon as surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s
to lower 80s, with cold air advection aloft as the upper trof
axis approaches from the west. An upper low centered over eastern
Missouri will track eastward overnight and push a trof axis into
north Alabama. Forcing ahead of trof axis will help maintain
convection development throughout the night despite loss of
daytime heating. Best rain chances overnight will be along and
north of I-20 with little or no rain expected south of I-85. The
upper trof axis will become aligned in an east to west direction
across central Alabama on Tuesday. Weak forcing along the trof
axis will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly
during the heating of the day. 0-6km bulk shear and mid level
lapse rates will be much lower on Tuesday and no severe storms
Wednesday through Sunday.
Wednesday continues to look warm and drier as a 500 mb ridge
amplifies over the region ahead of yet another upper trough which
will affect our area on Thursday into Thursday night. Confidence
is slightly lower than 24 hours ago regarding the threat for
severe storms due to model inconsistency with the upper trough
and a less impressive warm sector. We will continue to maintain a
low-end threat for damaging winds, large hail, and maybe a few
After a break on Friday and Saturday, the hits keep on coming.
Another strong storm system could impact the area late Sunday into
Monday. A severe weather threat cannot be ruled out, especially if
the system takes a more northerly track, reducing the chance of
coastal convection blocking the inland progression of instability.
00z taf discussion.
Keeping VFR conditions through much of the evening with thunderstorms in the vicinity
mentioned across all northern terminals. Storms are scattered
right now, making it difficult to include thunderstorms and rain at any specific
site. As we go into the overnight hours, expect cigs to lower
to MVFR. Guidance has tried to bring in IFR cigs and MVFR visible in
during the overnight hours into the morning, but i'm not sold on
that occurring just yet. Winds should stay up just enough to
maintain mixing and prevent fog development. The exception is
with toi, where winds could be a little lower, leading to the
potential for decoupling and lower visible. Otherwise, gusty winds,
sometimes erratic depending on proximity of scattered storms
tonight into the overnight hours. Tomorrow, generally southerly
winds continue with cigs improving back to VFR by the afternoon.
Central Alabama will remain in a warm and moist pattern through the
week, with the highest rain chances today and Thursday. Critical
fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 60 78 55 81 57 / 60 40 10 20 10
Anniston 61 78 57 82 58 / 50 40 10 20 10
Birmingham 62 79 59 83 60 / 60 40 10 20 10
Tuscaloosa 63 80 60 85 60 / 60 40 10 10 10
Calera 63 78 60 84 60 / 50 30 10 20 10
Auburn 61 77 60 83 59 / 20 30 10 20 10
Montgomery 63 81 61 86 59 / 20 30 10 10 10
Troy 61 81 60 86 58 / 20 30 10 10 10