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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1209 am CDT sun Jul 31 2016

Update...
for 06z aviation.

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Discussion...

Convection across central Alabama was enhanced tonight by two
distinct boundaries, one going from north to south and another
coming northward from the coast. Clouds linger but little
convection remains over the state. To our west across southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and west Mississippi a large
convective complex slowly moves to the east-southeast toward
Alabama. Cloud tops are cooling on infrared satellite and hires models
are indicating that this complex should continue to decay with
little if any left by the time it reaches central Alabama. Have
left in some low 20 pops in for a few hours for the low chances of
any lingering showers across now and any lingering by the time
this area progresses through the broad upper trough base later
tonight.

08



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Aviation...
06z taf discussion.

VFR conditions are prevailing this evening for all terminals, and
should continue for a majority of the night. Patchy fog will be
possible around terminals that received rainfall, such as keet,
but confidence remains low of any major vis restriction below
MVFR. Surface winds will be calm or light and variable through the
night, with light westerly winds expected during the afternoon
hours on Sunday. Thunderstorms in the vicinity remains in all tafs with scattered showers
and storms expected to develop once again Sunday afternoon.

56/gdg

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Fire weather...

Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next several days with highs in the upper 80s and low/mid 90s.
Surface winds will be less than 10 mph and generally from the
southwest/west through the first of the week. Since surface dew
points are so high, critical fire weather thresholds are not
expected to be met, with no watches or warnings anticipated.

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Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 92 71 92 71 92 / 40 30 40 30 40
Anniston 93 72 93 71 93 / 40 30 40 30 40
Birmingham 93 74 93 73 92 / 40 30 40 30 40
Tuscaloosa 94 73 94 74 94 / 40 30 40 30 40
Calera 93 73 93 73 93 / 40 30 50 30 40
Auburn 93 74 93 73 93 / 50 40 50 40 40
Montgomery 95 74 94 74 94 / 50 40 50 40 40
Troy 92 72 92 72 92 / 50 40 50 40 40

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Bmx watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

&&

$$

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