Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
328 PM CDT Sat Aug 27 2016
A decent fetch of dry air continues to push into central Alabama
this afternoon under southeasterly 1000-500mb flow. Dewpoints have
been able to mix out into the lower 60s across southern locations of
central Alabama, such as Montgomery, Troy, and Eufaula. Pwats on the
12z kbmx sounding this morning were fairly dry as well, measured at
1.30 inches. Due to the dry air fetch, showers and storms have been
hard to come by. Only isolated convection has been noted across
northern central Alabama counties. We're not expecting that to
increase much through the rest of the afternoon, and any isolated
showers and storms left will dissipate after sunset this evening.
Mostly clear skies are expected overnight tonight, with chances of
any fog remaining limited due to the drier air in place.
Sunday through Saturday.
Sunday's weather will be very similar to today with deep easterly
flow ushering in a drier air mass. A pocket a slightly higher mid
level moisture will pool over northeast Alabama Sunday afternoon,
and could see a few more afternoon storms in this region. Satellite
imagery shows a large area of drier mid level from the New England
states down to Georgia. This will be the air mass source region
for the next several days. The overall pattern next week will be
dominated by high pressure aloft which will keep the deeper Gulf
moisture near the coast. By Tuesday there could be a slight
increase in mid level moisture across southeast Alabama as a
inverted trof approaches this region. By Wednesday a short wave
trof digs southward along the eastern United States. This trof
will push a weak surface front into north Alabama on Thursday. The
models are showing slightly lower surface dewpoints across north
Alabama Thursday and Friday, so diurnal convection will likely be
confined to areas south of I-20. Of course any tropical development
would greatly impact the southern half of Alabama by the end of
the week, but given model uncertainties, will keep low rain chances
18z taf discussion.
Currently an upper level ridge and surface high are keeping a lid
on convection. A few cumulus can be seen on satellite associated
with an upper level weakness. VFR conditions and light easterly
winds are expected today. There is a slight chance of a stray
shower developing in northeast this afternoon where higher dewpoints
are located. Winds overnight will be calm.
Generally dry conditions with above average temperatures will continue
thru the middle of next week, with only isolated afternoon storms
each day. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 71 92 71 92 71 / 10 30 20 20 10
Anniston 71 93 72 92 72 / 10 30 20 20 10
Birmingham 74 94 74 93 74 / 10 20 10 20 10
Tuscaloosa 73 95 75 95 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
Calera 73 94 73 93 73 / 10 20 10 20 10
Auburn 73 92 72 92 73 / 10 20 10 20 10
Montgomery 73 96 74 95 74 / 10 10 10 20 10
Troy 72 93 72 93 73 / 10 10 10 20 10