Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kbmx 251054
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
554 am CDT sun Jun 25 2017
for 12z aviation.
today and tonight.
The cold front is currently located along the I-85 corridor and
continues to sink slowly southward. Behind the front dew points
are beginning to fall into the low to mid 60s. While low-levels
are drying out, the atmosphere still remains moist at mid and
upper-levels as the flow aloft remains southwesterly. A seasonably
deep mid and upper-level trough is currently digging southward
across the eastern US, while a weakening TUTT low (upper low) is
located over the western Gulf. Thus mid and high level clouds
continue to stream over the area, and surprisingly some light
radar echoes have developed over northern Mississippi. This
appears to be due to weak mid-level isentropic lift around the
315-320k layer and a weak shortwave, with the 3km NAM simulated
reflectivity being the only model to somewhat pick up on it. Added
in a mention of sprinkles through mid- morning across portions of
the northern counties. Chances of measurable precipitation with
this activity appear to be less than 15 percent given cloud bases
around 12 to 15 thousand feet, but will continue to monitor and
update as needed. More meaningful chances of showers and
thunderstorms today will be confined to far southeast Alabama near
the front, with the better chances south of the forecast area.
Highs will be in the low 80s across the north due to weak cold air
advection and mid-level cloudcover, and in the mid to upper 80s
Skies should clear from north to south tonight as high pressure
moves in from the north. With dew points in the 50s and light
northerly winds, very refreshing low temperatures for late June
will occur with 50s in the typically cooler northern locations
and low to mid 60s elsewhere.
Monday through Saturday
Very pleasant conditions for late June will be the main story for
the first half of the workweek as we dry out with low humidity. A
fairly potent but very moisture starved shortwave in northwest
flow aloft will graze north Alabama late Monday night into
Tuesday. Will have to monitor for any showers left over from any
upstream mcss moving through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, but
will keep a dry forecast for now given limited moisture and
instability. The trough will lift out by Wednesday and we will
return to a more typical Summer pattern on the west side of the
Bermuda high. Small chances of afternoon convection will return
across the south Wednesday, with low-level southerly flow becoming
established by Thursday resulting in a moist air mass returning.
High temperatures will remain manageable for this time of year in
the upper 80s as an overall weakness in the subtropical ridge
remains in place over the deep south.
12z taf discussion.
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with
generally light northerly winds.
Drier air continues to move into the region with much lower rain
chances today than previous days. Rain free conditions are
expected Monday and Tuesday with low humidity values for late June.
No fire weather concerns.