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fxus64 kbmx 221150 
afdbmx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
650 am CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Update...
for 12z aviation.

&&

Short term...
today and tonight.



Another hot day in store across central Alabama today. Slightly more
clouds and increased coverage of storms could keep high temperatures
cooler than yesterday, but it will still be on the warmer side.
Increased moisture across the area will also lead to heat indices
once again nearing or exceeding 105 in some locations. Therefore,
have continued mention of heat in the severe weather potential statement for today and issued a
heat advisory until 9pm for much of central Alabama.

25/Owen

Long term...
Sunday through Friday.

A surface low moves through the Great Lakes region Sunday and
stretches a cold front down through the Ohio River valley. This
creates a subtle shortwave in the upper levels that moves through
the Tennessee Valley Monday into Tuesday. Therefore, have increased pops
both Monday and Tuesday as extra lift could lead to increased
coverage of afternoon storms.

As we go into the second half of the week, scattered thunderstorms
are possible each afternoon with near-normal diurnal temperature
ranges. Troughing over the eastern US with upper-level ridging over
the Great Plains will set up generally northwesterly flow across
central Alabama. Models hint a stronger low pressure system moving into
Quebec that could send a cold front down into the Gulf states by
next weekend, but i'd like to see consistency in timing for a few
model runs before increasing pops above 40%.

25/Owen



&&

Aviation...
12z taf discussion.

Expect another day of scattered showers and storms by the
afternoon, and continued thunderstorms in the vicinity at all sites. Most of the
showers/storms will be done by 3z. Where it rains MVFR br can be
expected so included at all sites except bhm.

16

&&

Fire weather...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for
the next several days. There are no fire weather concerns at this
time.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 94 73 90 72 88 / 40 10 50 40 60
Anniston 93 74 90 73 88 / 40 10 40 40 60
Birmingham 94 76 90 75 89 / 40 10 50 40 60
Tuscaloosa 95 75 92 75 90 / 40 20 50 40 60
Calera 93 74 90 75 89 / 40 20 40 40 60
Auburn 93 73 89 73 88 / 40 10 40 30 60
Montgomery 96 75 92 75 92 / 40 20 40 30 50
Troy 94 73 90 73 89 / 40 20 40 20 50

&&

Bmx watches/warnings/advisories/...
heat advisory from 11 am this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
for the following counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...
Bullock...Chilton...Clay...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Fayette...
Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...
Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...
Russell...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...

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