Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
1147 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017
for 06z aviation.
A longwave trough remains positioned to our east along the eastern
Seaboard and extends into the Florida Peninsula while expansive
ridging aloft continues to be anchored near the northern baja of
California. At the surface, elongated surface high pressure
extended from the mid Atlantic region southwest across the deep
south and into the northwest Gulf of Mexico.
Other than a few high clouds, expect mostly clear skies with dry
conditions to prevail through the short term period. Winds will
become light overnight with warmer overnight temperatures compared
to last few nights across the area as surface high pressure
shifts further eastward.
In the long term period, a cold front remains on track to move
through the area in dry fashion Saturday afternoon and evening.
Cooler conditions are expected on Sunday with possible freezing
temperatures Monday morning across our northern and central
counties. Dry conditions are expected to persist through the start
of the next work week.
Saturday through Friday.
A quiet weather pattern with near normal temperatures should
continue for much of the extended period, and prospects for
rainfall continue look rather slim. A fast-moving shortwave will
bring a dry cold front our way on Saturday into Saturday night.
Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler for highs on Sunday,
and widespread low to mid 30s are expected for morning lows on
Monday as high pressure moves into the region. A slow warming
trend is expected to begin on Monday afternoon and continue into
Tuesday and Wednesday as higher heights move into the region ahead
of an upper-level trough in the plains. Model agreement and
consistency is poor for Wednesday through Friday with the handling
of one or more shortwaves, making for high uncertainty regarding
potential rain chances for that period. It is conceivable that
moisture will be too limited for appreciable rainfall.
06z taf discussion.
Predominantly VFR conditions anticipated this period. There will
be VFR ceilings much of the period and a cold front will swing
through central Alabama late Saturday afternoon. Winds will veer
from west to north through the period.
No big changes from the previous run, except the short duration
MVFR fog tempo in at mgm/toi around sunrise. There will be patchy
fog around central Alabama and the best lower level moisture and
dew point depressions are in the southeast. Otherwise, plenty of
high cloudiness drifts into the state from the northwest just
ahead of an approaching upper trough. This feature pushes a
surface cold front through the state by the end of the period.
Winds start off west to southwest and will end north to
northwest. At this time, will keep winds below 8kts.
The forecast features dry conditions and near normal temperatures
through the weekend and into early next week. There are no fire
weather concerns at this time.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Gadsden 39 66 35 60 32 / 0 10 10 0 0
Anniston 41 67 36 59 35 / 0 10 0 0 0
Birmingham 42 65 38 61 36 / 0 10 0 0 0
Tuscaloosa 40 67 39 63 35 / 0 10 0 0 0
Calera 43 65 39 63 35 / 0 10 0 0 0
Auburn 43 68 41 59 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
Montgomery 42 68 40 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
Troy 43 70 40 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 0