Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus63 kbis 251940 
afdbis

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
240 PM CDT Thu may 25 2017

Short term...(this evening through friday)
issued at 223 PM CDT Thu may 25 2017

Surface low pressure and upper level low will progress east
tonight across the prairie provinces of Canada and the northern
plains. Latest cam models spread scattered showers across
northern North Dakota late this afternoon then decreases the
coverage after the convective heating is done this evening.

Tonight and Friday will then be largely dry with the region on
the southern side of the surface low. Overnight lows tonight will
be in the 40s, with a few upper 30s southwest although do not
expect frost. Highs on Friday will be in the 60s.

Long term...(friday night through thursday)
issued at 223 PM CDT Thu may 25 2017

The extended forecast will be dominated by an h500 low dumbelling
around the Hudson Bay region producing broad cyclonic flow aloft
with the North Plains in the northwest flow. This should keep
temperatures generally a bit cool with limited moisture. The best
chances for showers will be Saturday and Sunday but no decent
amounts of rain yet in the forecast. So generally cool and dry for
early next week with some moderation by Wednesday and Thursday.
There may even be a touch of frost Tuesday morning southwest with
the center of high pressure moving across the region.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu may 25 2017

Gusty west southwesterly winds continue to overspread western and
central North Dakota this afternoon behind a departing cold front.
However winds will remain southerly over the James River Valley
area for the next couple of hours. Lower ceilings will slowly move
into northwestern North Dakota this afternoon and periods of MVFR
conditions will be possible over kisn during the early afternoon.
Elsewhere, expect VFR ceilings and visibilities to prevail until
late tomorrow morning, when MVFR ceilings will move into northwest
and north central North Dakota. Friday morning, breezy winds will
shift to the northwest.



&&

Bis watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations