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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
240 PM CST sun Feb 26 2017

Short term...(this evening through monday)
issued at 240 PM CST sun Feb 26 2017

Highlighting the short term period is light snow with accumulations
of between one and two inches Monday for portions of western/central
North Dakota.

Current surface map shows a meandering baroclinic zone/frontal
boundary draped over southern Montana into southwest/far south
central ND and then dropping back into northern South Dakota. Weak low
pressure riding along the boundary in southwest ND is producing
areas of light snow southwest with flurries downstream into south
central ND. The surface low will shift into northern South Dakota this
evening with flurries abating and ending.

Attention then turns to the transition from northwest upper flow
to westerly tonight, and southwest Monday, as the next shortwave
trough edges closer. The aforementioned baroclinic zone tightens
up across western and central ND later tonight ahead of a lead
shortwave shifting into southeastern Montana. Some alignment with
low level frontogenesis forcing and synoptic scale ascent nudging
into western ND by 12z Monday, then spreading into portions of
central ND during the day. With all models agreeing on this setup
and generating qpf, have raised pops to categorical with snow mentioned
resulting in between 1 and 2 inches north of I-94, and within the
Highway 83 and 85 corridor.

Long term...(monday night through sunday)
issued at 240 PM CST sun Feb 26 2017

The main shortwave trough will slide into Monday night and Tuesday
morning mainly affecting southern ND with perhaps up to one inch
near/along the southern border. As this shortwave exits, a return
to northwesterly flow returns through Thursday with a couple of
weak clipper type systems advertised to sweep through. Minor
accumulations of up to one inch is certainly possible with these
clippers, and adjustments can be made as they get closer in time.
The upper flow becomes zonal Friday through Sunday resulting in a
moderating trend. However the pattern remains progressive and
fairly active during this time as well. Highs will mainly be in
the 20s through Thursday, then moderate into the 30s and 40s
Friday through Sunday. With the moderating temperatures, expect a
mix of rain and snow as the main precipitation types into the weekend.

&&

Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 240 PM CST sun Feb 26 2017

Some occasional light snow over portions of western and central
North Dakota may lead to localized MVFR ceiling and visibility.
Ceilings will gradually diminish overnight into Monday morning,
with many locations reduced to IFR conditions Monday morning.

&&

Hydrology...
issued at 240 PM CST sun Feb 26 2017

Occasional ice jams due to ice breaking up continue along the
Yellowstone river in eastern Montana. River rises will be
possible on the Yellowstone in North Dakota from Fairview,
downstream to the Missouri River near Buford when ice jams
release. Ice affected rises may also be possible along the
Missouri River from the Yellowstone downstream to Trenton and
Williston. Those with interests along the Yellowstone and Missouri
rivers near the Montana border should be prepared for the
possibility of Rising River levels.

&&

Bis watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

$$

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