Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 200717
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
317 am EDT Wed Jun 20 2018
high pressure will build across the region overnight, with dry
weather continuing. On Wednesday, a weak storm system and
front will move across the mid Atlantic states, with a few
light showers affecting northeast Pennsylvania, and the
southern tier of New York. On Thursday, high pressure will build
back in, providing another stretch of dry, seasonable weather.
Near term /through Thursday/...
915 PM update...very quiet evening under high pressure with lots
of dry air. Made some minor adjustments to the wind and temps
this evening, otherwise the forecast and grids are in very good
2 PM update... strong dry advection this afternoon, via high
pressure building towards cny/nepa, has given US a sunny
pleasant afternoon, with much lower humidity.
This will lead into clear skies this evening. Later tonight, we
expect some mid and upper-level clouds to begin to advance into
the region, as increased west-SW flow aloft advects some moisture
into cny/nepa. The combined effects of ongoing low-level dry
advection into the early evening, plus increasing clouds late at
night, should preclude much if any valley fog development.
Lows by daybreak will range from the upper 40s-upper 50s.
Short term /Thursday night through Friday/...
high pressure will slide down from Canada beneath the upper
level trough axis, leading to a cool, dry Friday morning.
Temperatures will fall into the upper-40s in the colder valley
locations prior to sunrise, then quickly rebound into the upper-70s
and lower-80s on Friday afternoon.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
low pressure will track out of the central United States into
Ohio Friday night. As the cyclone progresses eastward, moisture
will stream into New York and PA and cause a chance for showers,
especially west of I-81.
The cyclone will pull a warm front into our region on Saturday.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast as the storm system
slowly meanders toward Lake Erie.
By Sunday, the diffuse cyclone will track to the Canadian border
and pass along northern New York, keeping the threat for showers
and thunderstorms over our forecast area.
Drier air will follow in northwesterly flow on Monday and
Tuesday. Fair skies are expected, with lows in the lower-50s and
highs in the 70s.
Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions are primarily expected during this taf period. A
weak area of low pressure will pass to our south during this
period. At krme/ksyr/kith, only scattered/broken mid and high level
clouds are forecast. At kbgm/kelm, high clouds will lower to
around 6k feet by mid morning then lift to above 10k feet this
evening. At kavp, high clouds will lower to a mid deck by mid
morning then unrestricted light showers with ceilings around 4k
feet are expected by late afternoon. This evening MVFR ceilings
and light showers will continue until taf valid time.
Light and variable winds are expected through the taf period.
Thursday through Friday...VFR.
Saturday through Sunday...showers and restrictive conditions