Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
853 PM EDT Friday Jul 29 2016
after a fair and mild night tonight, a series of small low
pressure systems will lead to increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms this weekend and early next week.
Near term /through Saturday/...
layered mid-high level clouds will be increasing through the night.
Main focus of the forecast this evening will be on sky and temperature
trends through the overnight which looks like the forecast has
mangaged well thus far. Bottom line, no major changes expected
under clear to partly cloudy skies and a bit drier than last
Saturday will see a short wave and associated convective activity
arrive in the morning mainly for northeast PA and then another
wave later in the day which will coincide with maximum heating.
This second wave Saturday will increase chances for showers and
thunderstorms from south to north in our forecast area with likely
probability of precipitation late in the day in the Poconos to chance and slight chance
farther north in central New York. CAPES are projected to remain below
750 j/kg especially GFS and even the NAM is not showing that
impressive CAPES. But the forcing from the waves will lead to more
low-level moisture advection on southeast winds and hence better
chance for showers and some storms Saturday versus today.
Short term /Saturday night through Monday/...
went with a model blend of the CMC and Euro for this period as
GFS and NAM both look like they are overdeveloping the
southeasterly low- level jet for Sunday in advance of the main
upper level wave. With more low-level moisture transport both NAM
and GFS looks overly wet for Sunday. The Euro and CMC show a low-
level southerly jet that works northeast Saturday night and moves
east of the region on Sunday. The NAM and GFS linger this feature
through Sunday. So pops will be high chance to likely for showers
and some storms for Saturday night as per all 4 models mentioned
above. For Sunday into Sunday night, trended down on pops
following the Euro and CMC which do not re-develop the low-level
jet feature for our area. Hence we have more of a diurnal trend
to the convection Sunday. Hence lowered probability of precipitation a bit based on a
blend of these models with the lowest in the morning and pops
peaking in the late afternoon Sunday.
For Monday, upper level trough axis is overhead and we continued achance
for showers and some storms.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
medium range models show fair agreement through the extended
period which leads to higher confidence than average. Monday
night, due to a departing upper level wave and associated surface
low pressure will keep chc/slight chc pops primarily over eastern
parts of the forecast area. Tuesday through Thursday night looks
dry across the area as upper level heights rise with a large
surface high pressure system across the northeast. The airmass
will become increasingly more hot and humid as the week GOES on.
On Friday, an approaching surface cold front will bring the
chance for showers and thunderstorms especially Friday night.
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR will prevail for nearly all of the next 24 hours. Mid layer
clouds, from a combination of thunderstorm debris and warm air
advection, will increase through the overnight hours and Saturday
morning. Low level moisture will be drawn into the area on
easterly flow during the afternoon, allowing for broken-overcast
cumulus/stratocumulus. Atmosphere will be increasingly tropical in
nature and ceilings may lower to MVFR very late in the forecast
cycle with occasional showers.
Light winds overnight and Saturday becoming east-southeast around
Sat night - Monday...restrictions possible with showers and
Monday night - Wednesday...VFR.