Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 271927
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
327 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017
high pressure will build into the area tonight and give the area
fair weather into early Thursday. Later Thursday and Friday,
low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms.
Near term /through Wednesday night/...
upper low moving over the area this afternoon and evening is
working with heating to generate showers and near severe
thunderstorms. Expect activity to die off pretty quickly this
evening as we lose heating and the low lifts northeast.
Wednesday should be dry for most of the area. Exception may be
the far north where cool air and elevation may trigger isolated
showers. Despite the sun, temps will still average a few
degrees below normal.
Next system approaches for Thursday and may trigger a few
showers very late in the extreme west of the area before
Short term /Thursday through Friday/...
320 PM EDT update...
Thursday our next system will start to impact the region from the
west. A strong low-lvl jet will develop over the area during to
morning as a warm front aloft quickly lifts to the north. The
upper-lvl trough that will impact the region will be located
over the Great Lakes region Wed morning and will eject a potent
vorticity maxima across PA/New York mid/late day. At this time am leaning more
towards showers and thunderstorms developing over The Finger
lakes region after 18z and then shifting east past I-81 after
21z. Keep in mind this event is still far out and the timing of
this event could dramatically change in the next couple of days.
Thursday could be an interesting day but there are a few
factors that could inhibit severe weather development. If
showers develop earlier in the day this may inhibit severe
storms from developing as mostly cloudy skies and a cold pools
may prevent development. If storms develop later in the day,
storms may be able to embrace the full potential of the
atmosphere and large hail, heavy rainfall and strong wind could
be The Hazards for the day. Cape, low-lvl lapse rates,
atmospheric wind profiles and helicity attm look healthy for
thurs. So there is some potential for severe storms to develop
on Thursday. We will closely monitor this system. Showers and
thunderstorms may prevail into the overnight period.
Temps thurs afternoon will finally be in the seasonal norm with
temps ranging in the uppr 70s/lows 80s. Temps are expected to fall
into the low/mid 60s by Friday morning. There may be a brief lull in
activity Friday morning before the next round of showers develop
on Friday. SW flow aloft, unstable airmass and embedded waves
aloft will keep all of central New York and nepa under the chance for
showers and thunderstorms on Friday. Friday will be a tad be
warmer than thurs, with temps rising into the mid to upper 80s.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
320 PM EDT update...
very minor changes were made to the forecast period. Updated
forecast with new wpc guidance.
SW flow aloft will prevail through most of the forecast period.
Multiple shortwaves are forecast to move across the region
through the period. This type of pattern will lead to an
unsettled weather, thus there is a chance for precip Friday
night through Sunday. Monday still appears to be our dry day as
high pressure briefly builds over the region. Showers may
re-develop over the region again on Tuesday.
It needs to be emphasized that although at least a chance of
showers/storms will be in the forecast through this period, any
all-day washouts look highly unlikely, with significant rain-
free periods, and convective chances greater coincident with
peak heating during the afternoon/early evening hours.
Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/...
for the most part, although VFR conditions will prevail today,
showers/embedded thunder will remain a possibility through mid-
late afternoon. A somewhat greater chance for this occurrence
will be for our cny terminals, as opposed to kavp. Although
brief restrictions are possible, we'll leave things as VFR at
this juncture. Also, we'll leave thunder out for now, although
we'll have to be vigilant of this possibility, especially during
Lots of uncertainty with fog development later tonight, with
conflicting signals in the model data. For now, we've
introduced the idea of IFR-below alternate minimum restrictions
at kelm after 06z.
Generally west-SW winds will average 5-10 kt today. Any
showers/thunderstorms later today could bring brief gusty winds,
perhaps 25-35 kt. SW winds will diminish later tonight to 5 kt
Wednesday...possible early morning fog at kelm, otherwise VFR.
Thursday through Saturday...at least periodic restrictions
anticipated in showers/thunderstorms.