Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
522 am EDT Fri Oct 21 2016
rain, heavy at times, will slowly move east across the area, with
a low pressure system and its cold front. While the heaviest rain
will diminish today, wet conditions will persist into Saturday.
Sunday will be mainly dry and seasonable.
Near term /through Saturday/...
4 am update...
Rain continues over the NW 2/3 of cwa early this morning. Rainfall
rates have dropped and thunderstorms have died. The heaviest rain
has been stationary for the last several hours from Bradford
County PA northeast to bgm. Radar estimates in Bradford were 4 to
7 inches. Warnings and advisories were issued. The Flash Flood
Watch was extended until 4 PM and expanded to include Tioga and
Bradford counties. Rainfall rates are down but rain will continue
today with another 1 to 2 inches over the area. Heavy rain still
possible which could drop a quick inch. If this occurs over an
urban area flash flooding is possible. A wide range of
temperatures today with the cold front over the area. Little
change over the NW with temps remaining in the 50s. Temperatures
in the se with little rain today and a south wind should jump back
into the 70s.
Today the cold front across the area will move east as the surface
low over PA will combine with the coastal low. A northwest flow
will bring cooler air with less moisture. This will be a gradual
change. At upper levels the trough will move into the area tonight
then into New England Saturday. Wrap around moisture tonight
through Saturday will keep showers going. Most of this will be
light. Highest amounts in the far northeast. This area is
southeast of Lake Ontario and has some orographic lift helping the
rainfall amounts. Tonight and Saturday could amount to another
inch of rain there. Lesser amounts to the south.
Tonight surface temperatures fall to the lower 40s. Might see a
few flakes mixed in but temperatures aloft and near the surface
marginal. Best chance of snow would be at higher elevations such
as the Tug Hill plateau and Catskills. Saturday temperatures
remain in the 40s with a cold NW flow at low levels. Showers
continue but the area starts to lift NE in the afternoon.
Short term /Saturday night through Sunday/...
4 am update...
Saturday night...vertically stacked system slowly moves northeast
through northern New England into eastern Canada. Wrap around
moisture and temperatures cold enough for lake enhancement will keep
precipitation continuing over the northeast portion of the forecast
area through the overnight period. Boundary layer temperatures will
fall enough after midnight for wet snow to mix in at the higher
elevations of the western Catskills and Tuff hill plateau. Snow
accumulations over northern Oneida County may be around one
inch with little elsewhere.
Sunday...brief ridging both aloft and at the surface will make for a
mainly dry day except for possibly light precipitation east of Lake
Ontario. A fairly tight pressure gradient will result in another
breezy day. Highs will range in the lower to middle 50s.
Sunday night...a mid level wave in westerly flow will bring the area
a chance for rain showers primarily after midnight. In extreme
northern Oneida County there could be a mix of rain and snow but no
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
4 am update...
Another fairly weak mid level wave will pass through the region on
Monday, continuing the chance for rain showers over much of the
area. A fairly brisk northwest flow will develop again during the
afternoon as temperatures Max out in the middle 40s to lower 50s.
Monday night most of the region will be dry but a fairly cold
northwest flow may kick off some isolated rain/snow showers
southeast of Lake Ontario. Lows will generally range in the 30s.
Tuesday through Wednesday will be dry as surface high pressure noses
down from eastern Canada. Next chance for precipitation will be
Wednesday night through the end of the extended forecast as a low
pressure system moves out of the mid west and into the Ohio Valley.
Will continue to advertise chance pops through this period.
Aviation /09z Friday through Tuesday/...
130 am update...
Rain heavy at times continues over the New York sites. Thunder is at bgm
and will last an hour or two. Conditions MVFR and IFR and
forecasted to fall to IFR. Plenty of moisture with a frontal
boundary across the area moving little. Ith/bgm will be the lowest
due to elevation. This afternoon with a break in the rain some
improvement except ith/bgm. By then a NW to N flow will bring
clouds off of Cayuga Lake for ith. Showers will continue in New York
through today into tonight.
Avp continues to be east of the rain and probably will until this
afternoon. This site is MVFR but could drop to IFR due to cigs
Winds south at bgm/avp at 10 kts ahead of surface front. Light and
variable rest. Later today winds shift to NW and N at 5 to 10 kts.
Overnight...MVFR/IFR. Widespread restrictions in rain and low
Saturday...continuing showers with restrictions, especially
central New York
Sunday...improving to mainly VFR.
Monday...restrictions possible as weak system moves through.
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for paz038.
New York...Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for nyz009-