Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 261349
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
949 am EDT sun Mar 26 2017
a nearby frontal complex, will continue to act on the moist air
mass over the region, and produce periods of rain during the
next few days. Cold air in parts of the Catskills may result in
isolated patches of freezzing rain this afternoon and overnight.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
950 am update...updated pops to reflect the current conditions
and latest mesoscale forecasts. Also adjusted temperatures with
the cold air holding fast over the areas east of i81. Expect the
rain to continue to move east and for temperatures to slowly
rise this afternoon, especially over the areas west of i81.
Previous forecast discussion continues below.
4 am update... colder air has continued to settle into the
region this morning, as a cold front has slipped well southward
into the mid-Atlantic states. At the same time, an area of light
rain is expanding across cny and parts of nepa, associated with
a passing short-wave. Although most areas will see readings in
the mid-upper 30s this morning, temperatures will be solidly at
or below 32f in our far eastern zones (oneida, Otsego,
Delaware, and Sullivan counties). Thus, a Freezing Rain Advisory
is in effect for these areas until 10 am. Even elsewhere,
spotty light freezing rain over higher elevations may occur, and
thus a Special Weather Statement has been issued.
This afternoon, precipitation is expected to diminish, as the
short-wave pulls off to the east. Skies will remain cloudy, with
plenty of low-level moisture still in place.
Late afternoon highs will range from the mid 30s in the southern
Tug Hill, Mohawk Valley, and Catskills, to the mid 40s in The
Finger lakes region.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday/...
415 am update... later tonight into Monday morning, another slug
of steadier rainfall is expected to impact the region, tied to
the next approaching short-wave, and also a northeastward moving
warm frontal boundary. During this time frame, parts of the
Catskills may still see readings near 32f, and thus spotty
freezing rain is possible at the onset. However, milder air will
be pushing into the region, so we anticipate any freezing
precipitation to be short-lived.
Much of Monday afternoon and Monday night may end up
precipitation-free in between systems, with just spotty light showers
or patchy drizzle. By this time, the warm front will be through
much of cny/nepa, so after late day highs in the mid 40s-mid 50s
Monday, readings will only fall a few degrees Monday night.
On Tuesday, the next short-wave is progged to move in from the
west, and combine with a slowly approaching surface cold front.
Consequently, showers will break out, and a few thunderstorms
are not out of the question, with some low to mid-level
instability developing (ml cape of 200-500 j/kg possible).
Temperatures Tuesday will be quite mild, with afternoon highs
ranging from the mid 50s-mid 60s over the majority of the
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
a shortwave trough will swing across the region tues night and
continue the chance for rain showers to linger. High pressure at
the sfc and anti-cyclonic flow aloft will shift over the region
Wed morning which will create a decent break from our wet
pattern. Sfc high pressure will settle over the region through
Friday morning, thus dry weather is expected to prevail through
then. The next storm system to possibly impact the area will be
a sfc low and potentially move into the region as early as
Friday morning. There are still model discrepancies on the
timing and track of this system, thus decided to keep low pops
in the forecast for this next system at this time.
Aviation /14z Sunday through Thursday/...
a stalled front will continue to bring a mix of IFR and MVFR
flight conditions to the region this morning. Cold air still
clings to the sfc, thus some freezing rain continues to fall this am.
Freezing rain shouldn't last too long as sfc temps are forecast to rise
by mid-morning. There will be a brief lull in precip this
afternoon and possibly some improvement in flight conditions
before additional rain moves back into the region late tonight.
Winds will be light and variable for the next couple of hours,
then become east/southeast around 10 to 15 knots by mid day and continue
through much of the forecast period. Kavp will remain light and
variable through the period.
Sunday night through Tuesday...restrictions likely from waves
of rain as frontal boundary waffles over the area.
245 PM EDT Saturday...a rain on snow melt situation is underway
this weekend, and is expected to increase early next week as
temperatures in the 50s-60s become more widespread across the
region. This warmth will also be accompanied by an increase in
surface dewpoints into the 40s.
Model averaged quantitative precipitation forecast suggests roughly an inch of precipitation
across the area through Monday night. This alone would not be
enough to trigger any flood worries, however, the almost 2.5" of
liquid water content across the headwaters of the upper
Susquehanna, Delaware and the Oneida-Syracuse river basins does
get our attention. After melting, and rainfall contribution, the
operational hydrologic model simulations are getting a few
areas of the upper Susquehanna and her tributaries to minor
flood stage by the middle of next week. Mmefs ensemble spreads
do also suggest potential for widespread minor flooding and
some chance to reach moderate at a few forecast points. There
remains considerable uncertainty, and time, to not raise any
public flags at this point, however, we have started core
partner decision support for early-look resource and risk
management planning efforts.
New York...Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 am EDT this morning for nyz009-