Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1044 am EDT Thu Sep 29 2016
unsettled weather will continue through the weekend as a large
and slow moving storm system impacts the region. High pressure
will build over the region on Monday which will keep the weather
dry and cool through mid week.
Near term /through Friday/...
1045 am update...our going forecast looks reasonable through the
afternoon, so just cosmetic tweaks (mostly to temperatures) were
made at this time.
We continue to see a trend for shower activity to slowly diminish
from east to west late this morning, as some drier air comes into
the forecast area from New England. The heaviest concentration of
showers this afternoon should focus from south-central PA, up into
parts of western New York. Thus, we'll continue to lower shower
probabilities with time this afternoon from east to west.
We're still expecting highs this afternoon to generally range from
the upper 50s-mid 60s.
Previous discussion...350 am EDT update....
the cutoff low is now located over in this morning and strong
isentropic lift has developed over southern PA. Expect the low to
shift further south today and the core will become stationary over
KY, and will remain stationary through Friday afternoon. The
placement of the low will shift the strong isentropic lift over
the region, thus increasing coverage in rain showers. Expect most
of the heavier precip today to be I-81 and west. Precip may reach
The Finger lakes and the central souther tier, but not much
Showers have developed over Steuben co this morning and portions of
nepa as expected. As the uppr low shifts further south this morning,
the placement of the precip will shift slightly further north and
become more widespread over the region. By 18z the bulk of the
precip will start to shift westward and most of the area will then
become dry for most of the afternoon. Except for Steuben co, and far
west of northern tier of PA and nepa.
Besides rain showers, mostly cloudy skies will prevail which will
keep temps in the uppr 50s to 60s this afternoon. Friday morning
temps will range in the uppr 40s to low 50s.
After midnight the chance for precip will increase across the area
and there will be a chance for precip through Friday evening.
Short term /Friday night through Saturday night/...
350 am EDT update...
upper level low lifts back north into the central Great Lakes region
during the period. This will keep showery conditions over the area
through Saturday night. At this point it's difficult to time short
waves rotating around this large upper level feature. Friday night
will continue with chance pops with the highest pops over the
western Catskills and Poconos due to upslope flow. On Saturday will
advertise likely pops for much of the region as coverage should
become more widespread with diurnal instability. Saturday night back
to chance pops with highest chances once again in the eastern
forecast area in upslope regions. Lows will range in the upper 40s
to middle 50s with highs Saturday in the lower to middle 60s.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
350 am EDT update...
upper level low will continue tracking eastward through the eastern
Great Lakes and into the local area by Monday as the system slowly
weakens. Will continue with chance pops Sunday through Monday with
temperatures ranging from the middle 60s to around 70. The remainder
of the extended forecast looks dry due to upper level ridging and
surface high pressure building south from eastern Canada. Maximum
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will run slightly above normal
primarily from the middle 60s to around 70.
Aviation /15z Thursday through Monday/...
rain showers will continue this morning as a large storm system
continues to impact the area. MVFR and VFR ceilings are present
this morning along with MVFR visbys. Expect these flight
conditions to continue through mid afternoon before lifting to
VFR. Showers will slowly end this afternoon as the system shifts
westward. Expect all taf sites to return to VFR by late afternoon.
Winds will remain easterly around 8-15 knots through the period
with occasional gusts around 20 knots.
Thursday night-Monday...occasional restrictions from showers
associated with upper level system in region.