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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1106 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slide through the region late this afternoon
and tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Behind this
front, cooler and dry weather will last into the weekend as a
large Canadian high pressure system dominates our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE...
Latest radar trends, and mesoscale model reflectivity simulations,
continue to show splotchy areas of showers across the northern
half of the forecast area this morning, with trends moving
southward through the day. We continue to refine PoPs closer to
reality and short term reflectivity guidance. Once we get into
early afternoon...much of the northern counties should become
mainly rain free, while showers drop south and tend to become more
fractured in time. Models suggest a second surge of isolated to
scattered convective activity along the sfc front and high
amplitude upper trof dropping out of Canada developing early this
evening before ending overnight.

Have also increased sky cover to cloudy today with satellite
indicating a broad area of of mid-high overcast covering all of NY
and a good portion of NEPA. This will suppress temperatures a bit,
with most areas struggling to crack 80...and have lowered temps a
bit from previous forecasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Much cooler Canadian high pressure will slide across NY State on
Thursday. With the upper level trough axis moving across the
region on Thursday, we can't rule out an isolated rain shower
during the day. For most areas, mostly cloudy skies early in the
day will slowly give way to clear skies after sunset.

Dry, clear weather will hold through the weekend. Temperatures
will warm from the lower 70s on Friday to the middle or upper 70s
on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 PM Update... 
High pressure extending from the surface well into the upper
atmosphere will remain entrenched across much of the Great Lakes
and Northeast through Tuesday. Little to no chance of rain is
currently expected all these days. Medium range global models are
struggling with what is currently TD Nine. GFS/Canadian models
would bring the strengthening system across northern Florida and
closest to the Atlantic coast this weekend and early next week.
These models are currently outliers from the current suite of
specific hurricane model tracks and other global ensembles which
carry the system well out to sea...as does the 12Z ECMWF (at least
through Sunday). For now...the official NHC cone will be followed
which keeps this system well to our south extending dry weather
across CNY/NEPA. Lack of substantive rainfall does not bode well
for drought conditions.

Temperatures start off seasonably cool this weekend and moderate
by this time next week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered light showers will move across most of central NY and
northeast PA this morning and early afternoon. The showers will
come from a VFR mid-deck. As the showers pass south, scattered
thunderstorms will form on the north edge of this precipitation in
north central NY this afternoon and then spread south. Thunder
probabilities are still low enough this far out and instability is
marginal in NY so left thunder out of NY terminals for afternoon
Put thunder in KAVP where more instability exists into this
evening. Rest of terminals have tempo groups for MVFR-VFR in
showers from 20-24z in RME and SYR, 22Z-02Z ITH, and ELM, 23z-03z
BGM and tempo for TSRA AVP 00z-04z.

A cold front will cross the region later tonight and bring mainly
MVFR CIGs to most terminals after 06Z.

Winds will be southwest 5 to 10 knots today and this evening and
then northwest under 10 knots tonight. 

OUTLOOK... 
Thursday- Sunday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/JAB
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJN

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