Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
640 am EDT Tue Sep 27 2016
skies will become mostly sunny later this morning under a pleasant
southwest breeze. Dry conditions along with seasonal temperatures
will continue through Wednesday afternoon. An upper level system
will get close enough to the region for showery weather from late
Wednesday into the weekend.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
at 330 am local radars show some light showers over the western
Catskills and Poconos as the surface occlusion continues making
eastward progress. This front and the associated showers will be
well east of the region by daybreak. A dry southwest flow will
follow the front leading to a mostly sunny day. High temperatures
will range in the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Tonight through Wednesday...primarily a dry period as a vertically
stacked low drops south through the western Great Lakes and into
the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Tonight will be mainly clear with
patchy valley fog as temperatures drop into the 40s.
On Wednesday, as the upper level feature moves into the Ohio
Valley a southerly flow of increasing moisture will develop over
the area. Clouds will increase from south to north during the
afternoon with chc/slight chc for showers by late day in northeast
Pennsylvania and the southern tier. Highs will range in the upper
60s to lower 70s.
Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday night/...
400 am EDT update...
Wednesday night the upper lvl low will start to dig southward across
the Midwest and the low pressure system that is currently riding up
the East Coast will drift out to sea. By Thursday morning the potent
low will become cutoff from the northern steam and become stacked.
This system will then generate a strong low level jet which will induce
isentropic showers over nepa and central New York late Wed night/thurs
morning. The low level jet will also generate mostly cloudy skies. Mostly
cloudy skies combined with rain showers will keep temps in the low
to mid 60s thurs afternoon.
The best chance for showers over the region appears to be Thursday
morning as rich Atlantic moisture will firmly be advected into the
region. Showers will drift westward across the region as strong southeast
flow aloft prevails across the region. There chance for showers will
exist throughout the day as decent isentropic lift will continue
over the region. Since rich moist air will be continuously advected
into the region, temps will only fall into the low to mid 50s
overnight into Friday morning.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
400 am EDT update...
the uppr low will continue to be cutoff from the northern stream on
through Sunday afternoon. Thus, there will be a chance for rain
showers through Sunday afternoon. This pattern will also keep near
seasonal temps over the region through the period. Early next
week we may see a brief period of dry weather as weak high
pressure builds over there region.
Aviation /12z Tuesday through Saturday/...
areas of fog this morning will keep IFR to near Airport minimum
conditions at krme/kelm/kbgm/kavp until 13z-14z. For the remainder
of the day few/sct fair weather cumulus is expected followed by
just cirrus overnight. Valley fog is expected across the twin
tiers late in the taf period, included IFR conditions at kelm
Light winds until mid mornirng then southwest at 5-10 knots, light
winds again tonight.
Wednesday night-Saturday...possible occasional restrictions from
showers associated with upper level system in region.