Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
319 PM EDT Wednesday Aug 24 2016
high pressure will give way to a storm system sliding out of the
Great Lakes. This storm will bring humid conditions, showers, and
a few thunderstorms to New York and PA Thursday and Friday.
Near term /through Thursday night/...
210 PM update...
Increasing mid-level cloudiness ahead of the approaching Great
Lakes storm system will preclude River Valley fog formation
Showers will spread into the far western forecast area prior to sunrise
Thursday, then expand across the entire region by afternoon. The
initial round of precipitation will be mainly rain showers, as the
atmosphere will be fairly stable during the morning, and lift
By Thursday afternoon, CAPES are forecast to increase to between
500 and 1000 j/kg, supporting thunderstorm development. With
modest cape and bulk shear values (around 25 to 30 knots)
forecast, severe potential appears minimal.
The cold front will only slowly slide across the forecast area through
Thursday evening, keeping a chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across most of the region through early Friday
1010 am update...
Fog burned off a little later than expected, but we've finally
cleared out. Temperatures have already jumped 10 to 15 degrees up
from their overnight minimums, and we expect afternoon highs will
climb into the middle 80s under sunny skies.
Our latest grid update is published.
Short term /Friday through Saturday/...
cold front will be departing early on Friday with models
showing some discrepancy in the timing by 12z. NAM is slower and
suggesting showers through Friday morning while GFS/Canadian
shift deep moisture and lagging upper support through rather
quickly. Will lean with this consensus, only keeping low chance
pops in through about 15z across our eastern zones, then rapidly
improve conditions for the rest of the day. High pressure builds
in with drier air, clear skies and more temperate conditions for
Friday night and Saturday.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
generally benign conditions appear to be in the cards for much of
early next week with models suggesting quasi-zonal flow and broad
high pressure at the surface. One glitch appears to be a minor disturbance
and weak surface front affecting parts of the entire region Sunday
night and Monday with scattered showers/thunderstorms. The front appears
to stall in the vicinity of nepa on Tuesday through Wednesday
with diurnal chances for a few showers/storms in that area, but
generally drier the further north through central New York. Looking
further ahead...we will be keeping an eye on the tropics as model
guidance suggests an early threat of a system approaching flordia
and entering the Gulf by late next week which could have rainfall
implications for cny/nepa by the following weekend.
Aviation /19z Wednesday through Monday/...
high pressure will keep the weather quiet into this evening.
On Thursday morning, a frontal system moving across Lake Ontario
will drag a few rain showers across the terminals, with a chance
for brief MVFR conditions.
Low level wind shear conditions are forecast early Thursday morning at rme, syr
Thursday night through Friday... mostly VFR, but some
restrictions are possible in showers/storms late Thursday into
early Friday as a frontal system passes.
Saturday through Sunday...VFR.