Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 240729
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
329 am EDT Wed may 24 2017
high pressure will linger today, keeping the weather dry with a
mix of sun and clouds. However, a low pressure will then spread
showers and cooler weather back across the region for Thursday
and Friday. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer over the
weekend. Mainly dry conditions Saturday will be followed by
increasing chances for showers Sunday into Monday.
Near term /through Thursday/...
305 am update...
the weather will switch from dry to wet over the course of the
near term period.
High pressure will still linger today at the surface. Meanwhile,
a deep upper low will drop to the Mississippi/Ohio rivers
confluence region, and in response ridging will occur aloft.
This combination will ensure one more dry day with temperatures
skewing warmer than normal, with highs in upper 60s to mid 70s.
Some upper 70s may be found in the lake plain to Syracuse areas
where high clouds will be thinner, and light downsloping of
southeasterly flow will occur. Generally speaking, the sky will
be a mix of high thin clouds and sun today.
Clouds increase quickly tonight, as upper ridge shunts
northeast in favor of a moistening southerly flow ahead of the
upper low. On Thursday, surface and upper lows will become
stacked while trudging across the region. This will yield a
chilly wet day, with highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Upper level divergence just ahead of the low, and forced ascent
within the left exit region of a strong 300mb jet, ensures that
the rain will come in rather quickly Thursday morning. Steadier
morning rain will transition to on-and-off showers in the
afternoon. A slight bit of instability aloft could even lead to
some embedded thunder, with chances of that mainly for twin
tiers-Catskills southward. Rain amounts will average from a
quarter inch east to three quarters of an inch west through 8 PM
Thursday, but with some more still to come.
Short term /Thursday night/...
330 am update...no changes
228 PM EDT update...
Showers are likely to linger through Thursday night as the sfc
low slowly slides off to the east. Temps are expected to
decrease into the low to mid 50s Thursday night.
Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
330 am update...minor adjustments to the temps and pops this
morning, also a correction to the wording to match the pops on
Friday. Some concern that there could be thunderstorms during
Friday as the upper low moves out, but both the GFS and European model (ecmwf)
show rising heights and stabilization of the sounding as the
day GOES on despite heating. Have elected to keep thunder out
228 PM EDT update...
the uppr low mentioned in the previous discussion will be slow to
depart and will continue to keep a slight chance for precip in the
forecast for Friday and Saturday.
An active weather pattern continues throughout the remainder of the
forecast period. Another potent uppr-lvl low will propagate eastward
across the northern plains starting Sunday, and will result in deep
SW flow aloft over the northeast. SW flow aloft will result in the
chance for precip over the region through the remainder of the
forecast period as multiple waves will move over the region
producing an environment conducive for showers.
Temps during the extended will be at or slightly above the seasonal
Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/...
high pressure will linger enough to keep all terminals VFR
through 06z Thursday, except for a brief exception at kelm
early this morning. High cirrus at around 20 kft agl will be
thickening, which will prevent valley fog from being as thick as
the prior morning, but a small window of IFR visibility is
still expected to occur at times between 09z-11z. Winds will be
light and variable early, becoming southeast 4-7 knots.
Late Wednesday night through Friday night...rain/showers with
associated restrictions likely due to low pressure system.
Saturday through Saturday night...mainly VFR.
Sunday...showers and restrictions becoming likely.