Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 271750
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1250 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017
coastal high pressure will keep temperatures warm to start the
new work week. A strong storm system moving out of the central
United States will drag showers and a few thunderstorms across
New York and PA on Wednesday.
Near term /through tonight/...
1015 am update...no major chines to grids...just minor
adjustments to T/TD/sky grids for today based on latest
conditions and trends. Main change was to lower dew points.
Previous discussion...a south-southwest flow will develop today
with high pressure off the Atlantic coastline. This will bring
warmer than normal temperatures back to New York and PA, with highs
pushing to near 50 degrees under partly sunny skies.
We went above superblend temperatures, which appear too
influenced by climatology. As was the case all of last week,
superblend temperatures are at least 2-3 degrees too cool.
A perturbation in the upper flow will pull warmer air into our
region Monday night. Some light precipitation and increased
cloudiness is expected as the wave lifts north.
Short term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
a trough over the central U.S. Will strengthen on Tuesday, and
another disturbance will shoot out of the upper level flow and
move across our region. A very warm air mass will push into
New York/PA (+9c 925 mb), and breaks of sunshine are forecast for
Tuesday afternoon once the warm front passes.
Max temperatures are currently forecast in the lower to
middle-50s, but there is upside potential. Timing will be an
issue. If skies clear out earlier than expected and showers hold
off until late afternoon, some areas will make a run at the
Another disturbance will pass through our region Tuesday night,
increasing the chance for rain. Temperatures will hold steady
or slightly rise after midnight.
Long term /Thursday night through Sunday/...
Period begins with the NE US in a deep trough and a cold northwest flow
of air. Lake effect snow showers will continue into Friday
morning just to be followed by a shortwave clipper system
dropping through the Great Lakes. This will re-energerize the
lake effect with 850mb temps still around -20c.
Wave exits early satuday allowing high pressure to build into
the area. This should a mostly sunny day as ridging builds aloft
ahead of system deepening over the northern plains. Warm front
pushes late Saturday and early Sunday devloping some weak
isentropic lift. Best support for precipitation will remain
north and west of the area but some light snow is certainly
possible overnight. Still enough cold air to allow frozen
Later Sunday, warm air advection going again in full force with
strong ridging aloft and weak surface high pressure.This should
allow for a mainly dry day for the end of the weekend.
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
Mainly VFR through the taf period. High pressure off the East
Coast will slide east and allow a southerly flow of milder air
and increasing moisture. Models show a bit of light precipitation
overnight, especially over The Finger lakes as a wave moves
through. It is not expected to be heavy enough to cause
restrictions and temperatures will not be low enough to support
freezing or frozen precipitation.
Tuesday night...possible restrictions in light rain showers.
Wednesday...possible restrictions in rain showers and
Thursday/Friday...possible restrictions in snow showers.