Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 191540
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1140 am EDT Tue Sep 19 2017
warm and mostly dry conditions will continue. Tropical system
Jose is forecast to remain well offshore, having very little
impact on central New York and northeast Pennsylvania other than
some clouds and spotty showers well east of Interstate 81
this afternoon through tonight. Temperatures will remain above
normal through the coming weekend.
Near term /through Wednesday/...
1130 am update...
models continue to trend more decidedly on keeping even
peripheral impacts of tropical system Jose out of the area. The
already low chances of showers in eastern zones this afternoon
through tonight have been dropped and/or confined even further,
and the sky grids are even more optimistic in terms of sunshine
this afternoon and less cloud cover tonight. This does, however,
further increase the odds of another solid fog development
night for many of the valleys in our area; especially central
and west. For Wednesday, the lingering slight chance of showers
that had been included in parts of Poconos-western Catskills
has now been removed with Jose being a non- factor.
high pressure will remain in control of our weather today.
Morning fog has once again developed in the stable air and light
wind. Sunshine will help mix out the fog by mid morning leaving
mainly clear skies. Temperatures will continue to be above
normal in the afternoon, by as much as 10f.
Little change as the latest model runs continue to keep Jose
well to the east. Some light showers may back into the Catskills
and Poconos tonight and Wednesday, but coverage will be spotty
and rainfall very light. Daytime temperatures will continue to
run well above normal Wednesday.
Short term /Wednesday night through Thursday night/...
updated Monday afternoon...
high pressure continues to build through Thursday with
supporting ridge aloft. Main adjustment to this segment of the
forecast was to increase daytime temperatures in said subsident
environment. National blend of models (nbm) was the warmest
guidance and leaned with that as gefs/geps and eps ensembles all
indicate anomalous ridging and thickness fields. Low 80s in the
valleys seem a good bet with slightly cooler 70s in the rural
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
3 am update...
minor adjustments were made to the extended forecast. We pulled
back slightly on pops associated with Marie, which appears will
be too far off the coast to affect our forecast area.
A continuation of the mild and dry pattern is forecast.
Updated Monday afternoon...
nearly identical conditions are expected into the weekend as broad
western trof/eastern ridge pattern becomes established with a
downstream Greenland block stagnating the long wave pattern. Looking
for wall to wall high pressure over the area with generally sunny
skies, warm days and clear, mild nights. Again, the biggest
adjustment to the forecast was to nudge up daytime temperatures,
closer to the warmest nbm guidance...otherwise low pops and mostly
nil weather. There are some indications that another tropical system
(marie) could start showing up in our area next Monday, but this is
a long, uncertain way off. Put in some low chance pops along the
southern part of the County Warning Area to account for potential. Also may need to
introduce late night/early morning valley fog in later forecasts as
these days approach since daily occurrence is a good bet this time
Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Highs upper 70s to lower
80s and lows mostly mid and upper 50s.
Aviation /16z Tuesday through Saturday/...
a combination of cirrus and low stratus spinning off of the
tropical system will cause widely varying ceiling and visibility
conditions early this morning. Patchy fog will burn off between
12z and 13z, then skies will be mainly sunny today with light
Another round of fog is forecast for early Tuesday morning, with
IFR fog likely at kelm.
Wednesday through Saturday...VFR except for fog possible each
night- early morning, especially at kelm.