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fxus61 kbgm 232010 
afdbgm

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
410 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Synopsis...
a strong cold front, will cross the area late tonight and
Tuesday. Windy conditions, along with showers and maybe a
thunderstorm, will accompany this system. Behind the front,
temperatures will trend cooler, for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

Near term /through Tuesday night/...
3 PM update...

Wind Advisory discussion...

In response to an approaching low pressure system winds will
increase out of the S/se this evening with sustained winds 20 to
30 mph, and gusts 40 to 50 mph at times tonight and Tuesday
morning. The strongest winds will be along the ridge-tops and
through the lake plain of The Finger lakes. Strong winds in the
boundary layer will be able to efficiently mix down to the
surface with the presence of steep low level lapse rates in a
slightly unstable air mass ahead of a cold front and a line of
convection.

A south to southeast flow at low levels has pumped moisture and
clouds across the County Warning Area today. Some sprinkles possible across the
higher terrain of nepa and the Catskills late today into this
evening. The steadier showers in wrn PA will move in after
midnight, then move east across the area exiting Tuesday evening
in the east.

The rain ahead of a strong front associated with a deep trough
cutting off over the Ohio Valley tonight. As it GOES negative
tilt the front will slow its exit in the east. Models have now
flip flopped and have a faster exit. With strong wind fields
giving good directional and speed shear. High pwats will mean
heavy rain will be with the front and could drop a fast half
inch in an hour. With the front slowing in the east rainfall
amounts will be heaviest in the far east where around 2 inches
is possible. Small chance of flash flooding there with some
higher amounts due to orographic lift and training.

Some cape of a hundred or two could add lift with and ahead of
the front. Some thunderstorms will form late tonight into
Tuesday. This could mix down the stronger winds and cause
isolated damage. Highs upper 60s to around 70.

Behind the front, only a slight chance of showers for the west
in the afternoon and everywhere in the evening. Late Tuesday
night it will be dry with weak high pressure as the upper level
trough stays in the western Great Lakes. Lows in the 40s.

&&

Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
230 PM update...

A cooler and much drier air mass will be advecting in from the west
on Wednesday as a sharp upper trough across the Great Lakes rotates
ewd through the northeast US. The potential for precipitation will
not be zero, with strong upper level forcing and cold air advection
aloft should be sufficient for robust stratus/strato-cu layer, and a
few stray light rain showers not out of the question. Temperatures
will be on the cool side Wednesday with highs only reaching into the
mid to upper 50s.

The upper trough will lift to the NE Wednesday night with weak
ridging behind the system acting to suppress the air mass. The
combination of this suppression and the lingering presence of a
surface high and cool temperatures should lead to morning low
temperatures Thursday in the mid 30s and lower 40s. Skies should
make a stronger attempt to clear out Thursday afternoon, but it may
take too long to impact temperatures. Highs thur afternoon only
expected to reach into the lower to mid 50s.

&&

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
230 PM update...

Weak high pressure will continue to dominate the region thur night
through at least Friday night as the next cold core low pressure
system rolls through the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. Out ahead
of the system strong warm air advection will take place and push temperatures on
Friday and Saturday into the upper 50s and lower 60s. There are some
differences in the timing of this weekend system with the GFS
being the fastest, bringing in the rain by Friday night, and the
European model (ecmwf) being the slowest, not bringing in the precip until Sunday
morning. Either way, the main idea is for the upper trough to the
west to stretch out as it translates ewd and slide through New York/PA and
most of the northeast very slowly. Could see a prolonged period of
rain, moderate to heavy at times possibly into early next week. Will
need to keep an eye on this system as it evolves through the
upcoming model guidance runs.

Temperatures will see a cooling trend later this week into next week
as well, with highs and lows closer to normal for this time of year.

&&

Aviation /20z Monday through Saturday/...
130 PM update...

A southeast low level flow has brought in a high MVFR to low VFR
ceiling at the taf sites. This aftn into the evening most of the
New York sites will be VFR. Bgm/avp will be mostly MVFR. The rain will
quickly move in from the southwest between 6 and 9z. This will
lower the ceilings to MVFR and further to fuel alternate towards
12z most locations. Visibilities may also fall to MVFR in the
rain which at times will be heavy. Rain ends mid morning.
Improvement back to VFR towards 18z from the west.

Southeast to south winds at 10 to 15 kts with some higher gusts
increasing tonight to 15 kts with gusts to 25 to 30 kts.
Some low level wind shear tonight with a 40 to 50 kt jet out of the south at 2k
ft. Behind the front around 12z winds diminish to 10 kts out of
the south to southwest.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...occasional restrictions
possible in scattered showers.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR.

Saturday...occasional restrictions possible in showers.

&&

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Tuesday for
paz040-048-072.
Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 am EDT Tuesday for
paz038-039-043-044-047.
New York...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Tuesday for
nyz009-036-037-045-046-057-062.
Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 am EDT Tuesday for
nyz015>018-022>025-044-055-056.

&&

$$

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