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fxus61 kbgm 261451 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
1051 am EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

light rain showers will be possible through mid-morning as a
storm system moves along the eastern Seaboard today. Warmer and
drier weather will return to the region this afternoon and on
Thursday. The next storm system approaches the region Thursday
night and will bring the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will
linger through Friday morning.


Near term /through tonight/...
1045 am update... any residual light showers/sprinkles over our
far eastern zones are on the decline late this morning, and
should be gone by early afternoon.

The closed low off the New Jersey coast continues to fill and drift
northeastward. Compensating subsidence just outside of this
system's sphere of influence is helping clouds erode a bit more
quickly than earlier anticipated. This trend is well shown on
several GOES-16 channels.

Going forward, we expect a partly-mostly sunny afternoon to
evolve for the majority of cny/nepa. We've also nudged afternoon
highs upward a bit (now in the 70-75 range for most locales,
with mid-upper 60s confined to the higher terrain of the
Catskills and poconos).

Previous discussion... 330 am EDT update... a few light returns
are present this morning but for the most part mostly cloudy
skies are dominating the region. The stacked low will drift NE
along the East Coast this morning, and as it continues to drift
NE early this am, there will be a slight chance for light rain
over the region. Precip should end by mid-morning over the
region, however due to subsidence aloft, mostly cloudy skies
will likely stick around through this evening. This afternoon,
the uppr lvl-low will drift off the coast, and light southeast sfc flow
will develop over the region. 850mb temps should rise to around
10-12 deg c, thus sfc temps should rise into the mid 60s to low
70s this afternoon.

By this evening, anti-cyclonic flow aloft will start to shift over
the region and will result in quiet weather start to erode the cloud
coverage. Temps this evening will range in the low to mid 50s.


Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...
330 am EDT update...
thurs afternoon 1000-500mb height thickness will
increase to around 568 dam as strong warm air advection take place ahead of the
next storm system. Sfc temps are forecast to reach the uppr 70s to
low 80s across central New York and northeast PA Thursday afternoon
as 850 mb temps rise to around 16 to 18 deg c. Attm, both the
GFS and the NAM are showing a strong subsidence inversion over
the region Thursday afternoon, this may keep enough cloud
coverage in place inhibiting temps rising into the mid 80s.

As mentioned above, another storm system is expected to move through
the region after 00z Friday to 06z Friday time frame. At this time it
appears showers and thunderstorms will be likely. Storm Prediction Center currently has
western New York in a marginal risk. Will closely monitor this system as
it approaches. Showers could linger through the night.

Friday an area of weak high pressure will briefly build into the
region which will keep most of the day dry before the next system
starts to impact the region from the west Friday night. Sfc temps on
Fri will again be abnormally warm rising into the 70s.


Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
4 am significant changes to current forecast just
minor adjustments based on latest guidance. See previous
discussion for details.

250 PM update...a difficult weekend forecast is setting up in
the medium range models which hinges upon the positioning of a
west-east oriented frontal boundary. The European model (ecmwf) suppresses the
front to our south by Saturday night, while the GFS and Canadian
global models reside furthest to the north and closer to the
New York/PA state border. This means the difference between a
cooler/drier start to the weekend and a slightly milder, but
wetter one. All of the model solutions appear to limit
precipitation on Saturday night as high pressure across Canada
surges south, then Sunday brings a return of the warm front to
our north with more clouds, showers, and even thunderstorms in
Tow. Agreement becomes better early next week that a powerful
cyclone will develop and move through the upper Midwest,
eventually sweeping a strong cold front through our area on
Monday. Tuesday seems to show limited chances for precipitation,
but turning cooler than average.

Due to the higher level of uncertainty associated with this
forecast, there will be varying chances for rain and
thunderstorms all weekend into early next week, although this
may turn out to sound more pessimistic than what reality may
actually bring. There should be plenty of dry times as well as
several hours of wet time as each weather feature translates
through the area.

Took a few degrees off the top of the Max temperature on
Saturday and Sunday, especially northern and eastern zones given
the expected frontal positions. Monday should be quite mild in
the upper 70s, and muggy ahead of the cold front with cooler
50s-60s next Tuesday.


Aviation /15z Wednesday through Sunday/...
moist easterly flow will keep restrictions across the region
until later this afternoon. At ksyr/krme, MVFR/alternate
required conditions will improve to VFR by early/mid afternoon.
At kith/kbgm/kelm/kavp, IFR/alternate required conditions will
improve to VFR by late afternoon. Overnight, MVFR/alternate
required conditions will redevelop at all locations but ksyr.

East/southeast winds around 5 knots.


Thursday: operational impacts possible. Chance thunderstorms and rain late.
Thursday night: operational impacts possible. Chance +tsra.
Friday-sunday: operational impacts possible. Chance shra/tsra.


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.



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