Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 252142
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
442 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017
a strong cold will continue moving through the western
Catskills and the Poconos region through early evening with the
continued threat of thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy
downpours. Temperatures will be cooler Sunday and Monday with
scattered snow showers and some lake effect snow east of Lake
Near term /through Sunday night/...
vigorous cold front making its way through the western Catskills
and the Poconos at 4 PM, will clear the area in about two
hours. Until then the threat for severe weather primarily for
damaging winds and flash flooding continues. This event is
being driven by very favorable winds fields, very moist airmass
and strong lift along boundary. Behind the front light to
moderate rain showers will continue into the early evening
Overnight, upper level trof axis moves through the region and a
much colder westerly flow develops over the area. Scattered
flurries and snow showers are possible later tonight. East of
Lake Ontario t85 drops enough (-12c) for some lake effect snow
showers with a 280 degree low level flow. Will increase pops
across the far northern forecast area into likely/categorical
pops. Moisture is limited and temperatures are marginal so only
light snow accumulations expected. Overnight lows will range in
the middle 20s to lower 30s.
Sunday...brisk, cool westerly flow will continue over the region
with lake effect snow showers gradually weakening during late
morning into early afternoon. The low level flow will keep the
the activity primarily into northern Onondaga/Madison and
north/central Oneida County. Total snow accumulations will
range from 1 to 3 inches. Rest of the region will remain mostly
cloudy with highs in the lower to middle 30s.
Sunday night will be fairly quiet with surface high pressure off
the mid Atlantic coast. Moderating flow will keep temperatures
steady or rise slightly in the lake plain. Lows will range from
around 30 in the lake plain to middle and upper 20s elsewhere.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
high pressure slides off to the east Monday with the flow
shifting to west-southwest bringing in milder air. Early in the day a few
flurries will still be possible southeast of Lake Ontario but otherwise
expect dry conditions with increasing clouds by late day as a
weak wave approaches. Highs will reach well into the 40s.
Monday night into Tuesday, pattern begins to turn more unsettled
as low pressure begins to organize over the central US and
track North/East toward the Great Lakes. Some light warm frontal precip
will be possible as early as Monday night with a better chance
of showers arriving for Tuesday. Some snow or mixed
precipitation will be possible at the onset Monday night into
early Tuesday but this does not look to be significant as
dominant precip type should be rain. By Tuesday afternoon,
temperatures will reach the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
unsettled but mild pattern continues Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a series of disturbances moves through the area. A
cold front will approach the area around the late Wednesday /
early Thursday time frame and can't rule out there there could
even be some thunderstorms once again along this front...though
at this point confidence not high enough to include in the
gridded forecast. Behind the front, temperature return to more
seasonable levels once again for the end of the week into next
weekend with the chance of some lake effect snow showers.
Utilized the superblend for this forecast with very little
Aviation /22z Saturday through Thursday/...
strong cold front moving through the terminals at this time.
In general MVFR rain showers are expected through late
afternoon with occasional IFR thunderstorms with strong winds
at krme/kbgm/kavp until 20z. Overnight, low level moisture and
a much colder airmass will lead to scattered flurries and low
VFR/MVFR ceilings. At krme/ksyr, some lake effect snow showers
will bring MVFR snow showers into the terminals beginning around
10z. On Sunday, low VFR/MVFR ceiling will continue under strato
Southwest winds at 15 knots with gusts around 25 knots shifting
to the west late this afternoon and continuing through Sunday.
Sunday afternoon...restrictions from lake-effect snow showers
probable at ksyr-krme, with mainly VFR elsewhere.
Monday-Tuesday...possible restrictions in light rain or snow
Wednesday...possible restrictions in rain showers.
Thursday...possible restrictions in light rain or snow
200 PM Friday update...
There has been very little change to the thinking regarding the
impact of melting snow and forecast rainfall on the rivers
around central New York this coming weekend. The bulk of snow and swe
in the upper Susquehanna and Delaware basins has nearly fully
released into the hydrologic system at this time, and rivers
are gradually responding. There remains an abundance of snow
cover in the northern half of Oneida County, and another mild
24 hours is still expected.
We now just wait on the rain to materialize tomorrow. Models
are honing in on about 0.50-1.00 inches with the bulk of any
widespread precipitation occurring across the northern counties
with less toward the New York-PA border. A narrow frontal rain band
moving through on Saturday afternoon could contribute to
significant rain rates for an hour, or so. In addition to the
river rises, localized water problems will have to be monitored
when the front sweeps through.
The Flood Watch continues for Oneida County, and National Weather Service Buffalo
has already issued a very long lead time Flood Warning for the
Black River at Boonville. It's going to take the forecasted
rainfall to create a flood on Oneida creek, so we will hold off
warning for that stream until confidence increases. This part of
our region is the area of most concern. Elsewhere, modest river
rises will occur on the Susquehanna and its tributaries with
flows expected to reach cautionary thresholds at several stream
gauges. There is a chance for these rivers to touch minor flood stage,
but confidence is low at this time and we will play the
PA...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for paz040.
New York...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM EST this evening for nyz046-057-
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for nyz009-037.