Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 222312
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
712 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017
tonight through Friday night more showers and thunderstorms are
expected as fronts pass through the area. Friday into Friday
evening locally heavy rain is possible. Seasonal temperatures
are expected into the weekend with decreasing chances for
Near term /through Friday night/...
tonight...an increasingly moist southwest flow will develop
overnight with pwats rising to around 1.50". Surface low
pressure in the western Great Lakes will push a warm front
through the region although the forcing with this feature is
fairly weak. Best moisture and lift continues to be in the far
northern forecast area where we will keep high chance pops later
tonight with slight chance across the central and southern
forecast area. Due to mid level instability will keep the
mention of thunder. It will be mild and increasingly muggy as
dew points rise and lows range from the middle 60s to lower
Friday/Friday night...a deep southwest flow of increasing
moisture from Tropical Depression Cindy will bring pwats to
around 2 inches by afternoon. Models have slowed the progress
of the surface cold front with passage now expected Friday
evening. Model soundings show tall/skinny cape and warm cloud
layer around 11k-12k feet. These are indications of potentially
very heavy rainfall with any convection. Due to a really juicy
atmosphere with plenty of clouds the amount of destabilzation
that occurs tomorrow is a big question mark. Low level shear
still looks fairly good to support severe weather but many
elements are lacking. There still is the threat for isolated
severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening but more
concerning is the heavy rainfall threat. Later shifts may need
to issue a Flash Flood Watch if the event looks more certain.
Will continue with likely pops from Friday afternoon into
Friday evening then lower pops after midnight as this boundary
drops through. Highs will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s
with dewpoints around 70 making it feel rather muggy. Friday
night temperatures cool off in the lower to middle 60s.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday/...
remains of T.S. Cindy will pass just south of the area early
Saturday and may bring a few showers to nepa. Later in the day,
surface trof and mid level short wave will drop into the area
from the Great Lakes resulting in scattered afternoon showers.
Weak surface ridging biuilds in for Saturday night and Sunday,
but yet another mid level wave passes through later in the day
some additional showers are possible, especially during the peak
heating hours with the cold pool aloft.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
unsettled weather continues into the long term with a persistent
upper low over the central Great Lakes creating instability,
especially during the afternoon hours. Solution to the problem
is still up in the air (pun intended) as the GFS and Euro come
to different conclusions on the eventual disposition of the low.
The latest GFS develops a slow moving closed low that will
linger somewhere in the New York and New England area through and
beyond the period. Euro is more progressive and would sweep the
low through as a deep but open wave by Wednesday. In any event,
it looks as though cool and unsettled weather with mainly
afternoon showers will continue through the long term.
Temperatures will average below normal, especially during the
Aviation /23z Thursday through Tuesday/...
the forecast calls for continued VFR conditions into Friday
morning, as a High-Deck slowly lowers to a mid-deck. Winds will
be light overnight.
Showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, will develop on
Friday. As the atmosphere moistens, MVFR ceilings and
visibilities will become more prominent. Southwest winds will
gust to 20 knots Friday afternoon.
Friday night...showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening,
with associated restrictions.
Saturday - Monday...mostly VFR, but shower/storm and brief
Tuesday...convection with restrictions.