Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
256 am EDT Wed Apr 24 2019
Low pressure over northern New England will move offshore today
as high pressure slowly builds into the region from the west.
A warm frontal boundary and low pressure system will move
northeast into our region by Friday with the next chance of
Near term /through Thursday/...
A low pressure system will move through northern New England and
offshore today. As a result, low clouds will likely linger
through most of the day from the southern tier northeastward
with northwesterly flow keeping some moisture around. A few
spotty showers are also possible along the New York thruway east of
Syracuse and southeast into Delaware and Otsego counties as
well. Further away from the low pressure system from Elmira
southeast into NE PA more in the way of sunshine is expected by
Where the low clouds hang on temperatures will have a hard time
reaching 50. On the other hand, locations with a decent amount
of sunshine this afternoon should get to around or just a bit
over 60. Northwest winds of 10-20 mph are expected as well.
High pressure builds into the region allowing skies to clear
out tonight with another favorable radiational cooling setup.
Many locations could fall into the 30's. While the growing
season has not started yet, any plants outside may need
protection tonight from any frost.
High pressure will move east of the region on Thursday with
another low pressure system and warm front coming northeast from
the Ohio Valley. Moisture will overrun leading to shower
formation which looks to stay southeast of the region through
Thursday. However, a slight chance of showers was added from
the southern tier southward to account for the NAM bringing very
light showers earlier than the GFS and European model (ecmwf). For this reason we
also opted to go more in line with the GFS and European model (ecmwf) model sets
on temperatures with highs. Highs are forecasted to reach the
60's across the region. However, if the NAM pans out more clouds
and a few showers would keep temperatures a few degrees lower.
Short term /Thursday night through Friday/...
230 PM update...
high pressure over the area Thursday morning gets quickly pushed
east as low pressure in the Ohio Valley moves over cny Friday
morning. A broad upper level trough moves into the area behind the
low late Friday. Rain should hold off during the day Thursday but
will move in during the evening. A deep southerly flow will bring
rain and moisture all the way from the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall
amounts expected to be around an inch Thursday night through Friday.
Left pops as likely but should increase with models coming more in
Temperatures are above or near normal this period. Highs
in the mid and upper 60s Thursday fall to around 60 Friday with
clouds and rain. Thursday night lows mostly in the 40s.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
230 PM update...
Friday night some lingering showers in the east as the upper level
trough moves through. Saturday some moisture wraps all the way
around the stacked storm in eastern Canada and into the Mohawk
Valley and tug. Cooler temperatures with lows in the 30s and highs
in the 50s. Maybe cold enough for some snow to mix with the rain
late Friday night .
The rest of the period will be active as the flow becomes zonal and
the northern stream stays across the Great Lakes. Models not
agreeing well on the timing of the specific storms. Periods of
showers with the best chances on Sunday and Tuesday. Again cold
enough in cny at the higher terrain and Oneida County for snow to
mix in late at night and first thing in the morning.
Wide range of temperatures withe the warmest temperatures in the
south. Highs mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows mid 30s to mid 40s.
Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/...
An MVFR cloud deck will build into all taf sites but avp and
possibly kelm by 09z. The main uncertainty with this deck is
potential variations that can occasionally reach or go slightly
lower than fuel alternate values. Northwest wind gusts around
20 knots are likely overnight through much of the day Wednesday.
Ceilings will be slow to lift to VFR Wednesday afternoon with
kith and kbgm earlier than krme and ksyr.
Thursday... VFR expected.
Thursday night into Friday... restrictions possible with
Friday night and Saturday... predominately VFR.
Sunday... restrictions possible in rain showers.