Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbgm 191954
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
254 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018
over the weekend, temperatures will be milder than recent days.
Through Sunday, any precipitation will be spotty and light. Rain
will become more likely Monday into Tuesday, as a low pressure
system moves through the region. Behind the system, cooler air
will return into midweek along with a chance of snow showers.
Near term /through Saturday night/...
245 PM update...
very slight ridge is bumping into our region aloft, with a
west-southwest flow at the surface. This will keep things rather
quiet tonight through Saturday morning.
A fair amount of sunshine this afternoon, especially south of
the New York thruway, will lead into a mostly clear evening with
initial radiational cooling. However, high clouds will stream
overhead during the night, which along with warm air advection
will hold temperatures from dropping much beyond evening
readings of mid 20s-lower 30s.
A weak shallow wave will pass through around midday Saturday.
This will veer low level flow to westerly, allowing return of
stratocumulus later in the day and especially Saturday night.
Highs of upper 30s-mid 40s Saturday, will be followed by lows of
mid 20s-near 30 Saturday night, as abundant low level moisture
remains trapped under subsidence inversion of passing surface
ridge. Moisture will be shallow across the area in general, but
it may get just thick enough to generate very light snowflakes
or drizzle by Saturday night in the Boonville-Rome-Syracuse-
Norwich-Utica areas. In model soundings, the top of the
saturated layer appears to only get to about 8 below zero
celsius which may make it a challenge to get any crystals in the
cloud layer. Thus, as surface temperatures drop slightly below
freezing Saturday night, freezing drizzle will be possible in
those areas. That will be a continued theme later in the
Short term /Sunday through Monday/...
bit of a mess as low level cold air and deep moisture trapped
under and inversion results in socked in clouds and a chance for
drizzle and freezing drizzle. Cold air remain locked in the
usual places Sunday, generally along and east of the i81
corridor and with limited solar radiation and a light surface
flow becoming easterly later Sunday. No lift into the dendrite
zone should eliminate the chance for any snow. Temps rise
enough Sunday afternoon to stop the freezing rain threat, then
drop again Sunday night as a surface high strengthens over New
England and we lose any heating. Chance for rain increases early
Monday as warm advection rains develop ahead of an approaching
plains low. This return the chance for freezing precipitation,
but somewhat heavier, again over the eastern zones. Temperatures
rise during the daylight hours on Monday bringing just rain.
Long term /Monday night through Thursday/...
rain continues into the long term as a big low pushes into the
central Great Lakes. Temps will rise onto early Tuesday, and
begin to fall later in the day and beginning the changeover to
snow from west to east later in the day.
Behind the low, a prolonged northwest flow of seasonably cold
air will Linger Lake effect snow showers into Thursday. Air is
not exceptionally cold, and flow does not seem favorable for a
biog snow event, but the best chance of accumulating will be as
usual, in the syr area and into parts of The Finger lakes.
Aviation /20z Friday through Wednesday/...
brief high end MVFR ceiling will still be intermittently around
krme shortly after 18z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected
for the remainder of today through tonight. A weak wave will
pass through Saturday morning, bringing MVFR ceilings back into
ksyr-krme before 18z Saturday with the other New York terminals
perhaps soon to follow. Ahead of that wave, a west-southwest low level jet
of 40-45 knots will set up to present low level wind shear
tonight though the time window for low level wind shear will be narrower for
ksyr-krme compared to terminals further south. Other than krme,
surface winds will be southwest 8-12 knots this afternoon,
decreasing slightly tonight before veering more westerly 8-12
knots on Saturday. For krme, wind will be variable this
afternoon, then light east-southeast later tonight before
switching westerly mid morning.
Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning...minor ceiling restrictions
possible for the New York terminals.
Sunday afternoon through Sunday night...restrictions become likely
due to increasing clouds, and chance of very light mix or drizzle.
Monday through Tuesday...periods of light rain and restrictions.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...chance of snow showers and
restrictions; best chance ksyr-krme.