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fxus61 kbgm 231934 
afdbgm

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
334 PM EDT sun Apr 23 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure will move off the New England coast through
Monday, keeping our weather rain-free during this time frame.
Monday will be pleasantly mild, with high in the sixties to near
seventy. Later Monday night and Tuesday, light rain will likely
move into the region, as a weak storm center, tracks up the
eastern Seaboard.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
3 PM update... another quiet night under clear-partly cloudy
skies, with a veil of high thin clouds across nepa and ny's
southern tier. Although the air mass has become fairly dry,
there may be a brief window of opportunity for valley fog right
towards sunrise, given decent radiational cooling potential.

Lows by daybreak will range from the upper 30s-mid 40s.

&&

Short term /6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night/...
315 PM update... Monday now looks rain-free, as the models have
slowed the arrival of the next system from previous runs.
Clouds should thicken up during the afternoon, though,
especially across nepa and the Catskills. Afternoon highs will
range in the 60s, with some of Our Lake Ontario plain and
central southern tier zones perhaps reaching 70, as sunshine
prevails longer in these areas.

Monday night-Tuesday, a southern branch short-wave and
associated surface low will rotate towards the northeast and
move up along the eastern Seaboard. Although the best chance of
rain will be late Monday night and Tuesday morning, along and
east of the I-81 corridor, most of our forecast area will see at
least some rainfall this period. Given the clouds and
precipitation, Tuesday will be cooler, with highs in the 50s-
near 60.

Tuesday night, as the coastal system weakens and drifts further
out to sea, rain will gradually taper off from west-east.
Readings will be fairly mild, as they hold up in the upper 40s-
lower 50s during the night.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
main concerns in the long term are focused around some lingering
light rain showers Wednesday afternoon to the east, then much
warmer temperatures expected Thursday, with showers and storms
late Thursday and thur night. The pattern still remains quite
uncertain Friday into the weekend with a front stalling out and
becoming draped across the forecast area, and a warm/humid air
mass gradually moving in from the south.

Weakening low off the coast will continue to lift to the NE during
the day Wednesday with rain showers on the back side of the system
tapering off west to east through central New York and NE PA. A narrow and
amplifying ridge of high pressure will build in behind the system
and allow strong large scale subsidence to dominate the region
Wednesday night and most of Thursday.

The ridge will usher in a much warmer air mass with temperatures
climbing into the mid to upper 70s, close to 80 thur afternoon.
Boundary layer moisture will also increase, with sfc dwpts into the
upper 50s and lower 60s, which will allow the instability to rise
ahead of an incoming front. This next front will slide in from the
west later in the day Thursday and thur night, and interact with the
unstable air mass to produce showers and thunderstorms. This cold
front will not have a whole lot of punch with it as the parent low
pressure will remain well to the north and move quickly into Quebec.
The front will wash out later in the day Friday, but still be
capable of tapping into lingering instability to trigger a few
showers and storms. A much stronger push of warm/moist air will be
felt into the weekend as the broad upper ridge over the sern US
expands and lifts to the north. The lingering boundary will lift
slightly to the north and remain capable of tapping into the
unstable air...with continued chances of showers and storms.

&&

Aviation /19z Sunday through Friday/...
VFR/unrestricted conditions can generally be expected throughout
the valid taf period.

The one exception perhaps is kelm, where a brief period of
valley fog is possible towards daybreak.

Surface winds will average 5 kt or less.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday night...restrictions possible, as
showers move across at least portions of the region.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...VFR, other than a brief
restriction/shower still possible early morning for kbgm-kavp.

Thursday through Friday...restrictions again possible, with at
least scattered showers anticipated, along with a chance of
thunder.

&&

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...none.
New York...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...mlj

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