Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
636 am EDT Monday Jul 25 2016

hot, muggy and a chance for showers and thunderstorms will be the
theme today. A cold front will move across the area this evening
and will eventually put an end to the chance for showers over the
region. This front will also bring drier air and quiet weather
through mid-week.


Near term /through tonight/...
400 am EDT update...
hot, muggy and a chance for showers and thunderstorms is the theme
for today. Light rain showers are moving east across portions of New York
and PA this morning due an embedded shortwave propagating across the
northeast and expect more to develop today.

There will be two different waves that will move across the region
today, one in the morning - a prefrontal wave, and one in the
afternoon- the cold front. Both are expected to generate showers and
thunderstorms today.

This morning a pre-frontal wave will push across nepa and cntrl New York.
This initial wave has decent dynamics with it is what is generating
a line of showers west of the Great Lakes. This wave will push into
West New York/PA around 12z. Dew pts this morning are currently in the upper
50s to mid 60s and are expected to rise into the 70s by mid morning.
Temps across the region will quickly increase this morning as well
which will result in a muggy, and unstable atmosphere. 0-2km sunrise
inflow will range from 15-20 kts which is good for a convective
environment, however the 0-6km bulk shear across there region this
morning will be fairly weak around 20-25 knots. Lapse rate are also
on the low side, thus this morning do not expect any severe storms
attendant to the pre-frontal wave. The wave dynamically this morning
is more impressive than the 2nd wave that will move through
region this afternoon.

Temps will rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s this afternoon. Issued
a heat advisory for Pike co, where heat index values are expected to
rise at and above 100 degrees.

Showers will develop over West New York/PA and push eastward into cntrl New York
and nepa by 15-18z. The 2nd wave will push into the region mid-
afternoon. This 2nd wave will force a cold front across the region
and this boundary will help regenerate storms over the area. The
cold front will start to move into cntrl New York around 21z.
This front will eventually push the showers east of our region by
03z Tuesday. The shear by late afternoon will increase to around 30-
40 knots across the region, thus activity may be more organized this
afternoon than this morning. Currently we are under a marginal for
most of the County Warning Area and the region under a slight risk just brushes
south of our County Warning Area. Concerns that may inhibit severe weather are if
mid lvl lapse rates will become steep enough to support svr


Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday night/...
400 am EDT update...
high pressure will build back over the region on Tuesday and last
through Wednesday. Temps will range in the uppr 80s to low 90s
during this period with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s,
which will keep temps close to their ambient temps and slightly
more comfortable.


Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
forecast models begin to diverge during this period as far as the
day to forecast specifics, especially after Thursday. However in
the big picture, the overall set up will be for lower heights and
increasing broad upper level troughiness over eastern Canada back
toward the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a series of waves look to move
west to east through the base of the trough bringing the area
increasing chances of much needed rain.

To start the period, there will be chances for scattered
showers/storms by late Thursday as a cold front moves south toward
the area. Temperatures will be quite warm ahead of this front with
highs Thursday in the 80s to near 90. We keep rain chances in the
forecast for Friday through next weekend as indications are that
the above mentioned cold front may stall in the vicinity of the
area as a series of waves ripple east along the boundary. The
temperature trend during this period should be for somewhat cooler
daytime highs, mainly in the low to mid 80s, with warmer lows due
to increasing cloud cover and moisture.


Aviation /12z Monday through Friday/...

Cold fnt aprcg wrn New York this mrng. Convection dvlpg out ahd of the
fnt racing east is xpctd to weaken as it aprchs the taf sites so
mainly VFR conds xptd. Twrd midday, fnt aprchs with heaviert tstms
and brief reductions in cigs and vsby as the storms pass. Grnl
VFR conds with drier air bhd the fnt with a wly flow.


Tue to Wed night...mainly VFR.

Thu to Fri...showers and thunderstorms. Mostly VFR to MVFR.


Bgm watches/warnings/advisories...
PA...heat advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
New York...none.


near term...kah
short term...kah
long term...pcf

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations