Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton New York
639 am EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
high pressure will build into the area from southern Canada bring
a dry but cool day today. Low pressure will move from the Ohio
Valley to the Great Lakes on Thursday bring mixed precipitation
followed by rain.
Near term /through Thursday/...
very lgt le shwrs cont over the xtrm nrn areas this mrng. Xpct
this activity to slowly die off as the flow becomes weak and
hipres blds into the area. Hipres slides east slowly allowing
moisture to return to the area late tngt into Tue. All models are
slower with the advancing pcpn thereby allowing more of the cold
air to escape before the onset opf pcpn. So...with a shorter pd of
snow or mixed...and lwrd snowfall fcst for lkate tngt and early
Tue. Wrm gnd and daytime htg thru the clds will also limit
amts...with the best chance for any accum over the hier elevations
of cntrl NY. To the east...hier elevations of the wrn cats will
see some snow...but late onsetwill allow much more wrmg limiting
amts there. Precipitation turns to all rain by the end of the pd Tue...with
the psbl xcptn of the xtrm nrn parts of Oneida cnty.
Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/...
vigorous upper level wave pushes through during the evening hours with
associated surface low transferring its energy from the lower
lakes east to New England. Expect steadier and heavier precip to
taper off west to east through the evening and as cooler air
advects in on northwest winds overnight on the backside of the system
there may be a mix with or change back to snow over higher
elevation areas of the Catskills. Despite surface temps dropping
into the 30s and 850 mb temps reaching around -4 c by morning
limiting factor for snow will be that moisture becomes confined
mainly to levels below 800 mb staying below dendritic zone.
For Friday, system will continue to push away into the Atlantic however
gusty northwest flow will continue to result in mostly cloudy skies with
some weak lake effect showers over central New York. There may continue
to be a little snow with this in the morning with just rain
showers by afternoon before precip shuts down by late day as
narrow ridging briefly moves in with progressive pattern.
Temperatures will be cool with highs only in the low to mid 40s
and this will be accompanied by northwest winds gusting 15-25 mph.
Ridging briefly sets up over the area Friday evening before the
next system approaches overnight. This will be a low passing well
north of the area over Ontario and as a result a southerly flow
will bring in milder air. Lows generally in the 30s to low 40s
occur in the evening before temps nudge up overnight. As a result,
by the time any precip chances arrive by morning it will be warm
enough for just the chance of rain showers.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
progressive flow continues into long range with low pressure
moving east from northern Ontario into Quebec during the day
Saturday. This will drag a cold front across the area bringing
some showers. However temps moderate ahead of this feature with
highs in the 50s. Heading into the latter part of the weekend,
model differences begin to emerge as the European model (ecmwf) develops another
wave that moves through bringing more showers for Sunday while the
Gem global is at the other extreme clearing the front well to our
south and building in high pressure. GFS is in the middle as it
features weaker wave that would mainly just brush NE PA zones with
some showers. We utilized the superblend for this forecast which
keeps fairly low chance pops in for Sunday with highs in the low
to mid 50s. High pressure then looks to build in for the beginning
of next week bringing sunshine and seasonally cool temps. The next
system after this looks to pass well to our north next Tuesday
bringing just low chances for showers.
Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions xpctd today under hipres. Tngt...low pressure
aprchs from the Ohio Vly and pushes moisture into the area. Temp
profile on fcstd sndgs support snow initially and for much of the
end of the taf pd. Enuf wrmr air may mix in some locations for ice
pellets or rain at times. Pcpn will result in MVFR and IFR conds
over the last 3 to 6 hrs of the taf. Lgt winds will become sely
late in the pd.
Thursday/Friday/Saturday/Sunday...IFR possible early Thursday in
light snow otherwise on and off MVFR possible in rain showers.