Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
620 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016
VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours, but
confidence during the first 6 hours of this taf cycle is low due to
ongoing convection. Confidence is higher that convection will stay
out of kama and kguy given storm motions across southeast Colorado/NE New
Mexico. With that being said, can't rule out a rogue storm developing
along an outflow boundary to impact these terminals. Have left
mention out of kdht for the possibility of convection due to low
confidence on timing and storms holding together as they move off the
higher terrain. Expect amendments should any convection look to
impact a terminal.
Outside of impacts from convection, expect winds to decrease
overnight and shift back towards a southerly direction. Tomorrow,
winds will pick up once gain from a south to southwesterly direction
between 15 and 20kt.
Previous discussion... /issued 513 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016/
isolated storms are expected this evening, mainly affecting northwest
sections of the combined panhandles. Though speed shear is very weak,
modest directional shear could allow for some storm organization and
consequently a few storms could become briefly strong or severe this
evening though widespread severe weather is not expected.
Northwest flow aloft has provided many nights such as last night
with widespread high terrain convection making it into the area. In
fact, it has rained somewhere in the panhandles every day for past
week and half. However, the upper flow pattern looks to change a bit
as flat ridging encompasses the southern half of the Continental U.S.. the
biggest change to sensible weather will be a slight decrease in the
coverage of evening thunderstorms the next several days. As is common
this time of year, northwest sections of the County Warning Area will have the best
chances for convection and eastern areas the lowest chances.
Temperatures will return to the mid to upper 90s after our brief
reprieve of highs "only" in the low to mid 90s.