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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
635 am CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Aviation...
southwest surface winds expected to commence gusting into the 20 to
25 kt range around 14z to 15z as stronger winds just above the
surface (as sampled by kama 88d) mix to the surface. Isolated
thunderstorms early this evening across northwest part of forecast
area may have a brief impact at kdht or kguy, but will not include in
forecasts until stronger signal for development is seen. Otherwise,
no clouds other than cirrus expected. No visibility restrictions
foreseen. VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 401 am CDT Sat Jul 23 2016/

Discussion...
upper level high pressure continues to weaken today; however, Lee
side troughing means southwest flow at the surface will translate
into another day with triple digit heat for most. A shortwave riding
around the 594 dm bubble will allow a chance for mountain convection
to make it into the northwestern panhandles this afternoon and
evening. With weak shear and minimal cape, storms are not expected to
become severe. Cams also indicate the storms will be pulse like and
remain confined to the northwest.

Sunday will see temps in the upper 90s as Lee side troughing remains
in place. However, a frontal boundary stemming from a low pressure
system in eastern-central Canada will bring more widespread showers
and thunderstorms to the area. With the extra soil moisture and
southeast upslope flow keeping clouds around, Monday will see
"cooler" temps...mid 90s. Chances for rain will continue through the
week as well with the upslope flow and moisture pumping in from the
Gulf as an upper level trough moves through the Great Plains
Wednesday, leaving the area in northwest flow. Models are in general
agreement of timing with minor variances to extent of ridging and the
degree of positive tilt to the mid-week trough. Thus have gone with a
model blend since no one model's variance stood out as more right
than another. Deep layer shear remains weak through the period.
Severe weather is not expected attm with the storms through the week.

Beat

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 100 72 98 72 95 / 5 10 10 20 20
Beaver OK 102 73 99 72 96 / 5 10 20 30 20
Boise City OK 99 66 96 66 92 / 20 30 30 40 20
Borger Texas 103 76 100 75 97 / 5 10 20 30 20
Boys Ranch Texas 102 74 100 73 97 / 5 10 20 30 20
canyon Texas 100 71 98 70 96 / 0 10 10 20 20
Clarendon Texas 99 72 98 72 97 / 0 5 5 10 20
Dalhart Texas 102 69 98 68 95 / 10 20 20 30 20
Guymon OK 103 71 100 70 96 / 10 10 30 30 20
Hereford Texas 100 71 98 70 96 / 0 10 20 20 20
Lipscomb Texas 100 73 99 72 96 / 0 5 10 20 20
Pampa Texas 99 72 97 71 95 / 0 5 10 20 20
Shamrock Texas 100 71 99 71 97 / 0 5 5 10 20
Wellington Texas 101 71 101 72 99 / 0 5 5 10 20

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

03/16

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