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fxus64 kama 252110 
afdama

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
410 PM CDT sun Jun 25 2017

Discussion...
not much for changes in this forecast package as the forecast is
still pretty well on track. Temps this afternoon have been
slightly warmer than yesterday with the higher temps in the west
today and cooler on the eastern side of the County Warning Area due to clouds
hanging on longer there. The break in clouds has allowed for more
daytime heating and thus increasing the instability today. Cams
are still disagreeing slightly on the extent of coverage for
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through the night. Feel
there is a decent chance for storms to develop and move across the
majority of the area overnight. Due to the increased instability
and better shear today, storms may become stronger than what we
saw yesterday; some of the storms on the western half of the area
may become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the
primary threats. We are already seeing initiation in Sherman and
Moore and expect more storms to fire up within the area or move in
from the mountains in New Mexico.

Monday will look somewhat similar to today with some of the cloud
cover lingering in the morning hours, followed by a break out of
clouds and then storms again in the late afternoon to evening.
These storms may also become strong to severe depending on how
much clouds break out, allowing for more instability to be
generated. Tuesday looks to see a warm up as winds turn more
southwesterly in the low levels and allow for downsloping winds.
As the upper level ridge moves across the Central Plains, this
will be the last day for northwest flow aloft and thus the final
day for storm chances to come in from the mountains. Mid week will
see zonal flow aloft as a trough tries to move south from Canada.
This will lead to even more downsloping and warmer temps. The end
of the week will see a return of high pressure building up in the
Desert Southwest. This leads to a return of precip chances for the
weekend.

Beat



&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 60 82 61 87 67 / 60 40 30 10 10
Beaver OK 60 86 63 90 71 / 40 20 30 10 20
Boise City OK 59 82 60 87 66 / 60 20 20 10 20
Borger Texas 63 86 64 89 71 / 60 30 20 10 20
Boys Ranch Texas 61 86 61 89 68 / 70 40 30 10 10
canyon Texas 60 83 61 87 67 / 60 40 30 10 10
Clarendon Texas 62 82 62 86 68 / 50 40 30 10 10
Dalhart Texas 60 86 61 87 65 / 70 30 20 10 20
Guymon OK 62 85 63 90 69 / 50 20 20 10 20
Hereford Texas 59 85 61 87 67 / 70 40 30 10 10
Lipscomb Texas 64 85 63 88 72 / 40 30 30 10 20
Pampa Texas 62 84 61 86 68 / 50 30 20 10 20
Shamrock Texas 65 85 63 87 70 / 40 40 30 10 10
Wellington Texas 67 85 64 88 71 / 40 40 30 10 10

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

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