Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kama 202311
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
611 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017
VFR conditions will persist through the 00z taf period. Winds will
be light and variable until around 12z for all taf sites. Winds
will start to pick up around 12z to about 10-15 knots mainly out
of the south southwest. From 17z on the winds will pick up even
more and be around 20-25 knots with gust up to 30 knots possible
out of the south-southwest.
Previous discussion... /issued 535 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/
generally benign weather will continue across the Oklahoma and
Texas panhandles through Thursday night. Warmer temperatures are
also anticipated on Thursday compared to today's values.
A large upper level trof of low pressure is progged by all models
to establish itself over the western United States the remainder
of this week and weekend, then track across the plains states
early next week. This particular upper level trof will likely
transport deep moisture north and northeast into the area as it
slowly moves towards the plains states with heavy rain potential
likely, possibly leading to flooding or flash flooding at times
across parts of the forecast area. This threat will begin late
Friday afternoon and continue into Monday, diminishing Tuesday.
Pops begin in the western zones Friday afternoon, then spread
eastward to encompass all zones by Saturday evening and continue
through Tuesday, with highest values Saturday through Monday
night. The upper level trof is forecast to translate across the
plains states next Tuesday, with precipitation ending from north
to south later Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. In addition,
another cold front will move across the region late Sunday night
and Monday if medium range models verify.