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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1105 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Update...made modifications to grids this evening to account for
decreasing overall convective coverage. Have kept pops in far
northwestern portions of the combined panhandles due to an outflow
boundary approaching the region. This outflow boundary may produce
enough lift to cause an isolated storm or two to break out, though
they may have trouble persisting. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast
remains on track.

Bieda

&&

Aviation...06z tafs...overall convective coverage has decreased
across the combined panhandles, though an outflow boundary moving
south through southeast Colorado and southern Kansas may cause a brief resurgence of
convection. Confidence is low on where this may happen, so will
address with amendments. Southerly winds at or below 12 kts, with ceiling at or above 10k
ft above ground level at kguy & kdht, will prevail at all taf sites thru 24/12z with
skies clearing thereafter. Winds will increase to between 10 to 20 kts
after 24/18z as a low pressure system dives south towards the combined
panhandles, with a quasi- stationary boundary just north of the OK
Panhandle. This boundary will aid in convective development along
and to the south of it, with kguy having the best chance. Have
continued prob30 thunderstorms at kguy after 25/00z, and withheld
mention at kama & kdht until coverage & timing can be ascertained.

Bieda



&&

Previous discussion... /issued 325 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016/

Discussion...
upper high over the panhandles today will shift westward over the
Great Basin region and southwest states through the middle and end
of next week. Another upper high over the Gulf Coast states and the
Gulf of Mexico will allow for weakness in the upper flow across the
panhandles. Northwest flow by the middle and end of next week will
allow for shortwave troughs to track east and south out of the
central rockies and across the Central Plains states and panhandles.
The chances for convection will increase late this weekend through
the end of next week mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
The hot conditions with temperatures at or above 100 degrees will
come to an end as The Heights decrease and high temperatures fall
back into the 90s. A surface trough is expected to develop across
eastern New Mexico. A stationary frontal boundary across eastern
Colorado and southern Kansas through early next week should lift back
to the north and east as a warm front by Tuesday or Wednesday before
moving back to the south and west again and then stalling across
eastern Colorado and southern Kansas by late next week.

Schneider

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

&&

$$

98/14

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