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afdama

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
609 am CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Aviation...
west northwest winds will gradually turn more southeasterly late
this afternoon or this evening. Wind speeds will be mainly below
10 knots, but may pick up to around 15 knots overnight at Ama.
Skies are expected to remain VFR.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 405 am CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/

Discussion...
fairly good agreement among models through Friday, but then
divergence in solutions becomes more pronounced thereafter.

Shortwave trof coming ashore near northern California at this time
is forecast to develop into a closed low over central Nevada by
this evening. By Friday evening, this feature will be somewhere
near 4-corners, with diffluent flow beginning to take shape over
Texas/OK panhandles. Have lowered pops in southwest and south for
Friday through Saturday night, as potential for dry-slotting looks
to be higher than was earlier thought. Have kept healthy pops
going across northern half of forecast area Friday night through
Saturday night where sufficient moisture looks more likely to be
positioned. Huge discrepancy among models regarding frontal
positions but moist upslope flow looks more likely to persist in
northern sections as well. Low pops retained in southeast
sections on Sunday due to lingering influence of upper low. Dry
weather expected Sunday night through Monday night as panhandles
remain between systems. Next upper-level trof or closed low
expected to arrive Tuesday, warranting low pops in northern
sections Tuesday and Tuesday night. 03

Cockrell

Fire weather...
no elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected for
the next several days due to fuels being moistened from recent
rainfall. 03

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

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