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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
340 am CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Discussion...
a cold front expected later this morning will keep the panhandles
cool through midweek. The front should be knocking on our northern
border just before the morning commute and surge south of the area
shortly after the noon hour. Despite the early frontal passage the
southeastern Texas Panhandle could still reach into the 70s while
the rest of the area remains in the 60s for highs. Winds behind the
front are expected to ramp up into the 20 to 25mph range with higher
gusts before dropping below 15mph overnight. With a surface high and
northerly winds our highs on Tuesday should also remain in the 60s
area wide.

Wednesday, westerly becoming southwesterly surface winds will help
to send our high temperatures back into the 70s area wide. This
shift in the wind is the response to a Lee side trough developing
across the eastern slope of The Rockies throughout the day. These
warmer temperatures won't stick around long as another cold front
is expected to push across the panhandles on Thursday. This cold
front will bring a much colder airmass to the region which could
result in our first widespread freeze Friday morning and hard
freeze Saturday morning.

Precip chances Thursday night into Friday morning remain the
focus for the forecast. Models have shown a spread in the
evolution of the upper trough which may or may not bring precip to
the panhandles. The latest GFS and Canadian have stayed with
previous solutions of keeping the area void of any chances due to
a less amplified trough. The 00z European model (ecmwf) held onto the precip
chances since it depicts an elongated lobe of vorticity trying to
break off from the parent closed low. Looking at the GFS ensemble
members, there are a couple of perturbations which lean towards
the European model (ecmwf) solution. With that being said, the vast majority don't
show the diving southern end of the trough. For this forecast have
held onto low end pops for late Thursday night into early Friday
morning. With that being said there is serious doubt in potential
for precip to make it through the near-surface dry layer across
the southern Texas Panhandle presented even in the European model (ecmwf). Should
precip survive to reach the ground there could be a flake or two
mixed in.

As mentioned above, Saturday could start out with temperatures
well below freezing, and these conditions will likely kill
sensitive vegetation. As we move closer to this time freeze
watches/warnings will likely be needed.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 68 40 62 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 69 37 62 34 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 63 35 60 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Borger Texas 70 43 63 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch Texas 72 37 63 34 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
canyon Texas 70 39 62 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Clarendon Texas 73 42 64 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dalhart Texas 68 37 62 36 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 67 37 62 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hereford Texas 72 38 62 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb Texas 70 40 62 36 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Pampa Texas 71 41 59 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Shamrock Texas 74 43 64 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Wellington Texas 77 44 66 38 79 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

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