Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kama 300529
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1229 am CDT Tue may 30 2017
For the 06z tafs:
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid taf period.
Main concern will be the mid to high clouds throughout most of
this period. There is another chance for rainfall through this
period as well, but chances look really low and confidence was
too low to add this mention in the current taf. That being said,
even then VFR conditions still look likely if showers form. Will
monitor changes closely for amendments.
Previous discussion... /issued 542 PM CDT Mon may 29 2017/
the best chance of thunderstorms looks to be at the dht and Guy
taf sites this evening. Ama may have a shower, but at this point
it does not look like conditions will go below VFR at Ama.
Conditions may get down into the MVFR range at dht and Guy if they
happen to get a direct hit from a thunderstorm. Showers and
thunderstorms should dissipate or move east of the taf sites by
shortly after midnight. Skies should remain VFR outside of
thunderstorms. Winds will be light and southeasterly for the most
part overnight, but will swing more to the south Tuesday morning.
Previous discussion... /issued 349 PM CDT Mon may 29 2017/
developing cu field over the panhandles as colder h500
temperatures move in out ahead of an upper level perturbation
over the high terrain of nm/Colorado indicate upper level instability
for some possible diurnal convection later this afternoon and
evening. Latest radar shows convection developing over the high
terrain over New Mexico. Latest hrrr/cams do indicate eastward
propagation of these storms as satellite derived northwesterly
20-25 kts winds at 600-400 hpa show the best chances of
precipitation will be across the far western and northwestern
panhandles by this evening. With cape around 1000 j/kg along with
effective shear around 30 kts, if these storms make it to the
panhandles, an isolated storm with hail and gusty winds cannot be
ruled out. Under weak upper level dynamics, the chances of
thunderstorms are expected to be diurnally driven.
This same pattern of diurnally driven convection is expected to
continue throughout the rest of the forecast period. Latest 29/12z
model and probabilistic guidance are slowing down the eastward
progression of the moisture transport out into the panhandles due
to a persistent zonal flow across the Gulf of Mexico bringing in
the surface moisture with south and southeasterly flow. Although
not strong, there maybe enough surface moisture in-conjunction
with an upper level disturbance ejecting out of eastern New Mexico
to give out region the best chances of thunderstorms, in which
some could be strong during the day on Thursday. Eventually as we
go into early next week, the trend of showers and thunderstorms
will continue to decrease from west to east across the panhandles.
Temperatures will flex from near average to slightly above
average throughout the forecast period.