Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kama 201057
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
557 am CDT Wed Sep 20 2017
12z taf cycle
VFR conditions are expected to continue at all three taf sites
through 12z Thursday. North winds 5 to 15 knots will become
northeast to southeast and then south after 16z to 18z today 5 to
10 knots or less.
Previous discussion... /issued 411 am CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/
a pre-frontal trough has already made its way through the
panhandles tonight and is followed by a weak cold front making its
way through the northern zones right now. This front will
continue pushing southward through the day. However, with zonal
flow aloft, the frontal passage will be dry and with little notice
other than temperatures being more seasonal. Southwest flow aloft
will return on Thursday as a trough digs into the western Continental U.S.
Through the end of the week and weekend. This will allow for
moisture to return to the area and shortwaves to eject over the
region daily. With the moisture and instability in place, combined
these with upslope surface flow and we can expect showers and
thunderstorms. The setup is also that of the synoptic Maddox
flash flood pattern. Pwats during the period are either near the
90th percentile or above it. Depending on how storms set up and
their speed, flooding and/or flash flooding may become a concern.
By Monday the trough tries to cross The Rockies and eject out over
the Great Plains. Long range models are not in good agreement on
this. For now, it seems like the rain could end by Wednesday, but
there hasn't been much agreement even from run to run on ending
timing. Fall will have a wet start, that's for sure.