Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kama 222342
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
642 PM CDT Mon may 22 2017
For the 00z tafs:
VFR conditions will prevail for the most part throughout the valid
taf period. The main challenge and concern will be the chance for
showers and/or thunderstorms through the evening/overnight hours.
The convective allowing models which provide simulated forecast
radar reflectivity indicates a line of showers will develop
overnight and push south through the panhandles. The better
chances are for both kguy and kdht as indicated by the tafs, but
certainly kama could see some showers and/or thunderstorms closer
to around sunrise, but I left kama out for now due to lower
chances/confidence. Will amened the taf if anything changes or if
confidence changes. That being said, I don't think categorically
there will be lower than MVFR conditions at any site unless heavy
rainfall produces reduced visibility under what is currently
Previous discussion... /issued 350 PM CDT Mon may 22 2017/
cold front is continuing to make its way south through the region
just about to exit the Texas panhandles as obs show winds shifting to
northerly behind the front. As a strip of positive vorticity advection swings south
rounding the base associated with an upper level perturbation in
the isobar field along with some mid level instability around 1000
j/kg and bulks hear around 30-35 kts, an isolated shower and
storms is still possible in the far southwest Texas Panhandle. These
storms for our region will be mainly diurnally driven. Latest
radar trends show some convection in eastern nm moving east-northeast toward
the southern Panhandle. Latest hi-res models does trend the
precipitation further south into the South Plains by 00z Tuesday.
Any left over showers or an isolated storm will linger through
Tuesday morning as the main upper level trough axis continues to
shift east bring the precipitation upstream of the axis further to
the east throughout tomorrow morning. With the cold front passing
and mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures tomorrow will be
similar to today with highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.
As we progress from Tuesday evening through the remainder of the
week, tranquil weather conditions will return to the panhandles.
After blustery northerly winds behind the front on Tuesday, winds
will gradually switch to south an southwesterly by Thursday as a
zonal upper level pattern settles over the panhandles.
Temperatures will respond nicely to the wind shift and by
Thursday and Friday, many areas can see high temperatures reach
the low 90s. By the time we reach the weekend, a positive tilted
upper level trough will move east from the northern rockies.
Latest 22/12z model and probabilistic guidance is not quite in
accord with the southern extent of the precipitation. Went with
blended guidance and by the weekend, the far northern areas may
see an isolated shower or storm, but will remain dry for the rest
of the region as a weak cold front works through the area Saturday
night. High temps over the weekend will range from low to upper
80s on Saturday and low to upper 70s behind the front on Sunday.