Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kama 151124
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
524 am CST Fri Dec 15 2017
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12z forecast period.
Winds will generally be out of the southwest between 10-15 kts
throughout the entire forecast period under mostly clear skies.
Previous discussion... /issued 218 am CST Fri Dec 15 2017/
the upper level northerly flow will flatten tonight into Saturday.
This will mean rising heights over the panhandles which translates
into warming temperatures both today and Saturday. As the flow
aloft flattens and the main westerlies move further north it will
allow an upper level low over Mexico to work its way northeast
across western Texas Saturday into Saturday night. There may be a
few rain showers associated with this disturbance, but we think
the bulk of the rain will be east of our area, so will leave the
mention of it out of this forecast.
However, another upper level low dives southeast into southern Arizona
by Sunday morning. This upper level low is expected to work its way
eastward and slowly weaken as it moves across the panhandles by Monday
afternoon. This upper level low may be able to bring enough moisture
northward from the Gulf of Mexico into our region to set off some
precipitation. It appears that most of the precipitation will be
in the form of snow Sunday night into Monday morning before possibly
ending by mid day Monday as rain. Most of the precipitation looks
to be in the southern Texas Panhandle closest to the upper level
dynamics and moisture. At this point, it does not look like a lot
of precipitation, but we will have to keep our eye on it. Models
also do not agree on the strength nor the amount of precipitation
with this system.
The forecast looks dry after Monday as the flow aloft turns more
zonal and northwest. Another cold front is due to arrive Thursday
relative humidity values will drop to below 20 percent in the western
Oklahoma Panhandle this afternoon, but winds are expected to
remain below 15 mph. Relative humidity values will fall into the
15 to 20 percent range across much of the western and central
panhandles on Saturday. Winds will be in the 20 to 25 mph range
with higher gusts. Relative humidity values should start to rise
by mid to late afternoon as low level moisture increases ahead of
the approaching upper level low from Mexico.