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afdama

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
536 am CST Sat Nov 25 2017

Aviation...
for the 12z tafs...
apart from a few hours of low-level wind shear at the beginning of
this forecast, good flying weather expected for the next 24 hours.
Kama radar continues to Sample 35 kt northeast winds associated
with Post-frontal low-level jet departing to our south at this
time.

Otherwise, light north surface winds will trend to light southeast
this afternoon, with continued veering to southwest this evening.
No clouds other than cirrus expected. No visibility restrictions
foreseen. VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 344 am CST Sat Nov 25 2017/

Discussion...
the overall upper level pattern currently is slight troughing to
the east and similar ridging to the west with an area of high
pressure over the Baja Peninsula. With this setting up the
panhandles to be in northwest flow aloft, a couple shortwaves
will speed across the panhandles today with little more fanfare
than some mid to high clouds. Tomorrow, the ridging will shift
east and by Monday, the ridge axis will be over the Great Plains.
This will set the area up for southwest flow. Combining this with
strong downsloping winds, will bring possible record temps on
Monday along with possible fire weather conditions which will be
discussed further below. Meanwhile, the next trough/closed low
looks to move onshore into central California Monday. Models
continue to move into more agreement and by Tuesday morning have
a closed low aimed right at the panhandles. There is still a bit
of difference in timing/location, but not much at this point. The
low looks to cross the area, but by its position, the upper level
jet will be placing the area in the left entrance region. Thus,
have removed the slight chance of pops for Tuesday night as upper
levels will be in confluence, leaving US dry.

After the low pressure system and associated cold front passes,
some slight troughing will push across the northern plains on
Wednesday and send another front our way Thursday. This will
simply reinforce some of the cooler air to drop temps 10 degrees
and leave US near climo, instead of the above climo temps from the
rest of the week. The end of the week will see the next system
getting ready to come into the southwest US.

Beat

Fire weather...
Monday looks to have record high temps, due to southwest flow.
Winds will be in the 15-25 mph range. Relative humidity values will generally be
between 15 and 20 percent, thus leaving most of the area in
elevated conditions. The northwest panhandles could see relative humidity values
drop into the low teens or single digits; however, this is also
the area to have winds lower during the afternoon hours as the
trough axis is close. This will prevent critical conditions if it
pans out. If the low GOES further northward and winds are
stronger, this area could see critical conditions.

Beat

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Amarillo Texas 65 38 72 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 62 35 75 40 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 62 36 76 41 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
Borger Texas 65 43 74 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch Texas 65 35 74 41 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
canyon Texas 65 37 72 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Clarendon Texas 67 36 73 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dalhart Texas 65 36 74 38 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Guymon OK 63 35 74 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hereford Texas 67 38 72 42 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb Texas 63 36 73 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Pampa Texas 65 39 72 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Shamrock Texas 66 33 71 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Wellington Texas 67 34 73 41 81 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

Ama watches/warnings/advisories...
Texas...none.
OK...none.

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