Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kama 251112
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
612 am CDT Tue Jul 25 2017
VFR conditions to prevail for the next 24 hours. There are low
chances for convection across the panhandles this afternoon which
may impact the terminals. Have not inserted into prevailing as
confidence of these storms impacting the terminals is low. Winds
will increase by midday into the 15 to 25kt range. These winds
will persist until after sunset when gusts will diminish as
sustained winds remain between 12 and 15kt.
Previous discussion... /issued 357 am CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/
a break in storm activity today as an upper level ridge begins to
shift over the panhandles. Might be just enough instability and
lift to get a couple isolated storms across the northwest
panhandles this afternoon. Otherwise conditions will be fairly
dry. This dry period will be short lived as the high pressure
will retrograde back west over The Four Corners later tonight
into Wednesday, returning northwest flow to the area.
By Wednesday evening a shortwave trough associated with a cold
front is expected to generate a line of convection that could
extend from the panhandles all the way to the Great Lakes region.
Right now the model trend is for the frontal system to move
through later in the evening after peak heating, and thusly may
not present a severe weather threat. With this cold front, 850
temps drop about 5-10 degrees c over 24 hours depending on which
model you follow.
Several impulses within the flow will bring a chances for storms
through the remainder of the extended. Temperatures are expected
to be on a slow rise as we head back into the weekend. By the end
of the weekend the ridge may shift far enough east that a brief
cool down could be in play for the panhandles.