Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kama 231142
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
642 am CDT Sat Jun 23 2018
all three taf sites should be VFR through the 12z taf period.
Latest satellite observations show an IFR cloud layer is present
west of dht and Ama. Latest guidance shows the clouds staying
west of the terminals however we will be monitoring for changes if
they do occur and will amend if necessary. Thunderstorms east of
Guy are expected to stay out of the vicinity based on observations
and guidance. Winds will be northeasterly in the beginning of the
period and southeasterly towards the end.
Previous discussion... /issued 430 am CDT Sat Jun 23 2018/
persistent band of thunderstorms over eastern Oklahoma Panhandle
is being supported by strong warm air advection at lower levels
through 700 mb and weak circulation near 700 mb. Models are not
handling this precipitation well. We will include morning
thunderstorms in the northeast. Other item of interest is the
potential for late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms in
far northwest part of forecast area, where increasing instability
could support continuation of any thunderstorms moving in from the
higher terrain. Otherwise, not as hot today, with high
temperatures near normal.
On Sunday, severe thunderstorm potential returns. Models vary
with the details, but by Sunday afternoon, strongly baroclinic
frontal boundary expected to lie across northern sections, with
dryline extending southward through eastern zones. High
temperatures near 100 degrees fahrenheit in southwest sections
will boost surface-based instability. Highest pops Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night in northeast near expected
afternoon position of triple point. Frontal boundary moves south
of panhandles by sunrise Monday.
One final period of showers and thunderstorms expected for Monday
night, when last shortwave in northwest flow passes, inducing
moderately strong warm and moist 850 mb flow.
Later periods expected to be hot and dry due to the influence of
strong mid-level ridge.