Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kama 271713
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo Texas
1213 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017
VFR conditions should prevail for the majority of the 18z taf
period with the possibility of showers and maybe an isolated
thunderstorm within the first 9 hours. Winds have been slow to
increase across the terminals but we are starting to see a slight
increase in speeds as residual morning clouds dissipate. We still
expect wind gusts to top out around 35kts with sustained southerly
winds around 20kt to 25kt. Hi-res models show the possibility of
convection to develop around 20z across the west, but it should
develop just east of kdht. Kama and kguy would have the better
chance to see any convection this afternoon. Have inserted a tempo
group to cover the possibility of these showers impacting the
terminals. Should a shower move over the terminal, a wind gust of
near 40kt can't be ruled out as we will have a very dry sub-cloud
layer. Convection should move east of the terminals around the 00z
hour. Winds should then become less than 12kt for the remainder of
the night. During the late morning hours tomorrow, we expect to
see winds increase above 15kt once again.
Previous discussion... /issued 337 am CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/
interesting forecast for the panhandles through the weekend. We have
anything from thunderstorms today and Friday to snow over the
A surface low will intensify along the Lee-side of The Rockies today
as height falls and a strong upper level jet move across the
southern rockies. The southwest Texas Panhandle will just meet Wind
Advisory criteria (35 mph sustained) this afternoon. So have gone
ahead and issued a Wind Advisory for Oldham and Deaf Smith counties.
There may be just enough low level moisture that returns across the
northeast County Warning Area ahead of the surface trough to produce a few
thunderstorms. A storm or two could become severe with damaging
winds the main threat given the inverted "v" sounding.
On Friday, a cold front may be the focus for more thunderstorms,
especially across the northwest half of the County Warning Area. The cold front
will then push into the southeast Texas Panhandle overnight. The
front will encounter a more unstable atmosphere in this area, so
severe thunderstorms with large hail will be possible.
Models are in pretty good agreement on the track of the strong storm
system that will affect the panhandles this weekend. The upper level
low is expected to intensify and cutoff over the 4-corners. This low
is the expected to dive southeast to east central New Mexico by mid
day Saturday and then it is expected to track northeast across the
Texas Panhandle Saturday night and then it is expected to move into
south central Kansas by mid day Sunday.
Rain is expected to pick up Saturday ahead of this low. Some snow
will likely mix in with the rain across the northwest County Warning Area during the
day on Saturday. As the cold core of the upper low tracks across the
panhandles Saturday night, most of the rain will switch over to snow
from northwest to southeast. Only the far southeast Texas Panhandle
will have just rain. At this point it looks like the best chances
for accumulating snow will be along and northwest of a line from
Lipscomb, Texas to Amarillo Texas. Greater than 3 inches of snow will be
possible just to the northwest of the track of the low across the
northwest quarter of the panhandles, mainly northwest of a line from
Guymon, OK to Dumas, Texas to Adrian, Texas. This will be an interesting
winter storm as there should be plenty of moisture with this very
dynamic system and there should be plenty of cold air. There is the
possibility that greater than 6 inches of snow could fall near the
New Mexico and Colorado state lines in the far northwest part of our
County Warning Area.
As the upper level low exits our area on Sunday the rain and snow
will decrease from west to east.
A weak short wave trough will move across the area Tuesday night in
the northwest flow aloft. This could bring some showers to the area.
Otherwise, the forecast will remain dry after our weekend system.
Texas...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Deaf Smith...Oldham.