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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
1026 am EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Synopsis...
mainly fair and seasonable weather is forecast for today before a
storm system approaching from the Ohio Valley brings a threat of
widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms for Sunday and
Monday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 1026 am EDT...mid and high clouds are on the increase
across the Albany forecast area. Some isolated rain showers
showing up on radar across the eastern Catskills and the Mid
Hudson valley. Temperatures range from the 60s in the hills to the
70s in the valleys. Latest high resolution models show the bast
chances for rain today are after 2 PM and south and east of the
southern Adirondacks which look to stay dry through most of the
daylight hours.

Have continued idea of a slight chance of thunderstorms embedded
in areas of rain showers in gridded forecast. Expect highs today
to be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with north to northeast winds at
around 5 mph.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
for the entire short term period expect unsettled weather with
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms becoming more numerous
across the forecast area through Monday. The activity looks to
diminish some by Monday night. The expected rainfall from this
event looks to be between an inch and 2 and a half inches. The
rainfall is much needed as much of the region is very dry. The
rainfall will result from a slow moving low pressure system
tracking east from the Ohio Valley this evening across northern
Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York on Sunday and off
the Long Island coast on Monday morning. Precipitable waters during the period
of most intense rainfall mainly Sunday and Sunday night rise to
between 1.5 and 2 inches. Expect lows Saturday night to be in the
upper 50s to upper 60s with highs on Sunday in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s
with highs on Monday in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Lows Monday
night will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
the period starts out on Tuesday with our region still under the
influence of an upper level trough and cyclonic flow. So one more
day of mostly cloudy skies, relatively cool temperatures, and
scattered showers expected, before the flow is forecast to become
anticyclonic Tuesday night as the upper trough pulls away.

Dry conditions with warming temperatures expected from Wednesday
through Thursday, as upper level heights rise with surface high
pressure gradually shifting from directly over the region on
Wednesday, to the southern New England coast by Thursday.

The European model (ecmwf) is more pronounced with an upper level ridge building in
by Friday, while the GFS is showing flatter flow aloft with an
approaching cold front on Friday. The European model (ecmwf) delays the cold front
until Friday night given the strength of the ridge. Will side with
the slower the European model (ecmwf) for now and mention only slight to low chance
pops on Friday, with high chance pops across much of the area Friday
night. Either way, it will be very warm with increasing humidity
ahead of the cold front for Friday.

&&

Aviation /14z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high and mid level clouds will increase and thicken today ahead
of a frontal boundary approaching from the southwest. Some
showers will approach kpou/kpsf/kalb late this afternoon to early
evening from the south and west, so have added vcsh. Steadier
showers are expected to develop either later this evening or
overnight at all terminals. VFR conditions initially, then
deteriorating to MVFR within a few hours after steadier showers
begin.

Wind will initially be light and variable this morning, becoming
mainly northeast around 5 kt later this morning into the
afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Sunday: moderate operational impact. Likely rain showers...tsra.
Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Monday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Monday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers.
Tuesday to wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.

&&

Fire weather...
mainly fair and seasonable weather is forecast for today before a
storm system approaching from the Ohio Valley brings a threat of
widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms for Sunday and
Monday.

Relative humidity values will drop to 40 to 65 percent today,
recover to 80 to 95 percent tonight, and only drop to 65 to 85
percent on Sunday.

Winds will be north to northeast at around 5 mph today through
Sunday.

&&

Hydrology...
according to the U.S. Drought monitor, much of the area is
considered abnormally dry (category d0), and parts of the
Catskills and western New England are within a moderate drought
(category d1).

The next chance of widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms
arrives later today and tonight and lasting into early next week.
The weather prediction center has put all the Albany forecast area
in a slight risk of exceeding rainfall needed to begin flash
flooding on Sunday. Rainfall amounts in many areas could range
between an inch and two and a half inches through Monday night
with local amounts possibly up to 3 inches. Due to recent dryness,
we do not anticipate widespread flooding at this time. Locally
heavy rainfall could produce some urban flooding and ponding of
water on roadways and some standing of water in low lying areas.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...11/NAS
near term...snd/11
short term...11
long term...jpv
aviation...jpv
fire weather...11
hydrology...snd/11

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