Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kaly 170518 
afdaly

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
118 am EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure will build across the region tonight into Tuesday
with fair but chilly conditions. The high will move off the
eastern Seaboard for mid to late week, allowing dry conditions
to persist, with temperatures trending back to above seasonal
levels.

&&

Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 1235 am EDT, some patchy clouds continue across portions
of the eastern Catskills and far western Mohawk Valley, as well
as portions of southern Vermont. Some flurries may be falling from
these clouds in a few areas.

Elsewhere, skies are mainly clear. We expect mainly clear skies
through daybreak, which combined with light to calm winds,
should allow temperatures to fall into the mid/upper 20s across
most higher terrain, with lower/mid 30s in valleys around or
just after daybreak. Still expect the Saratoga region to fall to
around 30 degrees, where a freeze warning remains in effect,
with a frost advisory for the remainder of the Hudson Valley
from the capital region south to Poughkeepsie, and for southern
Litchfield Colorado CT.

&&

Short term /6 am this morning through Thursday/...
for today, we can expect a good deal of sunshine but continued
cool conditions with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s. The
center of the ridge of high pressure will be directly overhead.

Benign weather expected during the midweek period as an
expansive surface anticyclone envelops much of the eastern half
of the Continental U.S.. center of the high will be roughly over the
central Appalachians Tuesday night, while a low pressure system
moves across northern Quebec. The positioning of these systems
should allow a light southwesterly flow to persist overnight, so
lows are expected to be a bit warmer than tonight, especially
over western portions of the forecast area. On average, lows are
expected to be close to seasonal normals.

Wednesday, upper level height rises and h850 temps increasing by
around 6c compared with Tuesday will result in highs around 10f
warmer than Tuesday. Plenty of sunshine as well as we go back
above seasonal normals. Considerably milder Wednesday night as
well compared with Tuesday night due to the warmer airmass.
Thursday is expected to be similar to Wednesday, perhaps a
couple degrees warmer.

&&

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
this will be a very comfortable period of dry conditions and well
above normal temperatures as high pressure builds across the region.
Daytime relative humidities will dip to under 40 percent on both
Friday and Saturday.

A weak cold front sliding south through our area Friday night will
result in Friday being the coolest day of the period with high
temperatures from mainly the mid 50s in the high peaks of the
Adirondacks and greens...to around 70 degrees down the Mid-Hudson
valley. For the balance of the period, highs will range mostly from
around 60 degrees to the lower 70s.

The weekend will be a Winner, but by the start of the work week,
things go downhill, with showers being set off by late afternoon
across the northwest half of zones, triggered by an approaching cold
front. These showers will likely affect the remainder of the region
by Monday night.

Low temperatures Thursday night and Friday night will range from
mainly around 40 degrees to the upper 40s. Saturday night lows will
range from the mid 40s to around 50 degrees, and Sunday night lows
will be in the 45 to 55 degree range.

&&

Aviation /05z Tuesday through Saturday/...
sky will be mostly clear through the period ending 06z
Wednesday. There could be some shallow fog as winds trend toward
calm toward daybreak and putting mifg in the forecast for 10z-
12z. Light winds of 2-3 kt through daybreak should limit the fog
through daybreak but will amend if some fog from rivers, lakes
and swamps briefly reduces visibilities early this morning.

Winds will be north at 5 kt or less through daybreak, then trend
west at around 6 kt through morning and becoming south to
southwest late this afternoon and evening. Winds trend toward
calm this evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Saturday: no operational impact. No sig weather.

&&

Fire weather...
high pressure will build across the region tonight into Tuesday
with fair but chilly conditions. The high will move off the
eastern Seaboard for mid to late week, allowing dry conditions
to persist, with temperatures trending back to above seasonal
levels.

Relative humidity values will bottom out in the 30 to 50 percent range Tuesday.
A bit more moist for Wednesday with relative humidity values falling into the
45 to 60 percent range. Winds will be from the west-southwest
generally at 10 mph or less both days.

&&

Hydrology...
no precipitation is expected through at least the end of the
week thanks to persistent high pressure, with flows remaining
at normal to below normal seasonal levels.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for ctz013.
New York...frost advisory until 9 am EDT this morning for nyz049-050-052-
053-059-060-064-065.
Freeze warning until 9 am EDT this morning for nyz041-084.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...kl
near term...iaa/kl/11

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations