Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
945 PM EDT Friday Aug 26 2016
high pressure will build into the region tonight. This will bring
fair and warm conditions to the region Saturday into the first
half of Sunday. A disturbance will approach the area on Sunday
evening. This will bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms
to the region late in the day on Sunday.
Near term /through Saturday/...
current forecast continues in good shape.
High pressure in control through Saturday. Clear skies for the
most part, except for some patchy fog in favored locales. Some
cirrus streaming out of Michigan and Ontario will be approaching
the County Warning Area tonight, but it should dissipate as it heads east. So,
going clear/mostly clear will cover it.
Temperatures some areas running below forecast (gfl), other places
above forecast (alb). So updated current readings, but no impact
on forecast lows expected.
Short term /Saturday night through Sunday night/...
tonight...with clear skies and light to calm winds, temperatures
will start to drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s. High pressure
will start to build into the region. With some low lying moisture
and calm winds, have included patchy fog across the valley
Saturday...high pressure will be in control across the northeast.
It will be mostly sunny with highs in mid to upper 80s. With a
weak gradient, winds will be less than 10 mph. Low temperatures
Saturday night will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Sunday...the ridge of high pressure will start to move further
south as some northern stream energy from Canada starts to work
its way down. The first part of Sunday will be dry. Included a
chanced of showers and thunderstorms across the Adirondacks Sunday
afternoon and across the remainder of the area in the evening with
a cold front approaching the area.
Sunday night...the cold front will continue to move south Sunday
night. There will continue to be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night ahead of the front.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
the beginning of the long term period will start unsettled as a
weak cold front will continue to move southward on Monday. Due to
the timing...will keep a low chance of pops on Monday. By
Tuesday, any threat of rain should diminish as we are between
On Wednesday...model guidance showing a cold front approaching the
region with associated low pressure system. With limited moisture
available have kept slight chance of precipitation with this
system. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s
across the Adirondacks to low to mid 80s from the capital region
south and eastward.
By Wednesday evening...the leading edge of colder air will
work its way into the region. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 50s.
On Thursday...the low and associated front should be through the
area. Any wrap around moisture associated with this system should
be out of the region by the afternoon. High tempertures on
Thursday will be in the upper 60s across the Adirondacks...to the
lower to mid 70s across the greater capital region south and
Aviation /02z Saturday through Wednesday/...
high pressure is in control through the forecast period.
This allows for a one line VFR taf at kpou.
Winds are still a little gusty at kalb so need two lines for a VFR
However, that same high pressure offers favorable conditions for
the development of IFR br at climatologically preferred kgfl and
kpsf. Light winds, clear skies, and dew points not all that low --
low 60s -- will set the stage for the development of br tonight
at these two sites. Have IFR kicking in at 06z.
Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Monday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Monday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Tuesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
high pressure will build into the region this weekend. This will
bring fair and warm conditions to the region.
It will remain dry though most of the weekend. Relative humidity values increase
up to 80 to 100 percent tonight, then dry back to 40 to 50 percent
Near calm winds are expected overnight. North to northwest winds
at 10 mph or less are expected Saturday.
high pressure will build into the region this weekend. The
next chance of rain will be on Sunday and Monday with a frontal
boundary. At this time no Hydro problems are anticipated.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.