Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kaly 182218
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
518 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017
our weather will continue to be cloudy and unsettled into
Tuesday night with chances for precipitation especially across
the higher terrain. Brief warm up Tuesday with highs about 10
degrees above normal in the mid 30s to mid 40s with seasonable
temperatures back for Wednesday.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
light precipitation continues north a warm front as an approaching
a short wave move through the fast zonal flow. The boundary
snakes across east central New York into southern New England.
Temperatures are still at or below freezing across portions of
the Mohawk Valley, upper Hudson Valley and southern Vermont.
Temperatures will rise a bit or remain steady much of the night
as the boundary lingers across the region. Chances for the
light precipitation will decrease as the short wave moves to our
east this evening. Used the top-down approach to generated the
Short term /6 PM this evening through Wednesday night/...
the warm front will finally lift north Tuesday as the stronger
short wave approaches and we will experience a brief warm up.
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal in the warm
sector with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Chances for precipitation
will increase as the the short wave approaches and with the
milder air in place mainly rain showers are expected with snow
showers more limited to the higher terrain.
With the passage of the short wave and a surface cold front
colder air will be ushered back into region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. A surface low is expected to develop over northern
New England by Tuesday evening. Winds will become brisk and
gusty across the region between this departing deepening low
and an advancing high. The flow will become favorable for some
lake enhance snow showers Wednesday especially in the morning. A
reinforcing boundary will swing through Wednesday shifting the
winds to the north ending the threat for lake effect, however
even colder air will be drawn in. Wednesday night will be
another cold one with lows mainly in the single digits and
Long term /Thursday through Monday/...
Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/...
a warm front is currently draped across the forecast area from
the Schoharie valley southeastward into Litchfield County, CT.
North and east of this boundary, light rain/snow showers have
been falling, affecting mainly kgfl. However, light showers
cannot be ruled out of kalb/kpsf. Overall, flight conditions
have been MVFR/IFR and this should continue through at least the
evening. There is potential for br and lower ceilings overnight as
low level moisture increases behind the warm front, if it
indeed lifts through the remainder of the region.
South winds at 4-8 knots will continue through this afternoon,
then become light/variable again after sunset. Winds will once
again increase and become breezy (out of the southwest) late
Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday: low operational impact. Breezy no sig weather.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain...sn.
Friday night: high operational impact. Likely rain.
Saturday: high operational impact. Likely rain.
no hydrologic problems are expected this week. Ice will continue
to form on areas lakes and streams.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs
on our website.