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fxus61 kaly 251420 
afdaly

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Albany New York
1020 am EDT sun Jun 25 2017

Synopsis...
a cold front and disturbance in the upper levels of the
atmosphere will approach and move across the region today and
tonight triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Another cold
front and upper level disturbance will trigger scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms again Monday and Tuesday mainly
during the afternoon and evening. Seasonably warm today with
cooler, below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
upper energy in the Great Lakes already producing some
convection and as it tracks along and just north of the U.S.
Canadian border, the upper cold pool will expand south and east
into our region. The upper cold pool is quite evident in area
12z soundings and will contribute to steepening midlevel lapse
rates. So, convection will develop late this morning and through
the afternoon with scattered coverage. There will likely be
small hail and gusty winds in the stronger storms but most if
not all the convection should stay below severe limits. Just
some minor changes to the forecast through this afternoon to
reflect current data, trends and mesoscale model forecasts.
Highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s many areas but upper 60s to
mid 70s higher terrain. The previous afd has a few more details
and is below.

Weak instability expected to develop with daytime heating and
850 mb winds will increase ahead of the trough and its
associated cold front to 25 to 30 knots with the stronger winds
across the north. Expecting scattered showers to develop with
widely scattered thunderstorms across the northern portion of
the forecast area where the better instability will be with
isolated thunder to the south. There is the chance a few storms
could produce some small hail as the freezing level lowers and
or strong wind gusts in areas north and west of the capital
district and across southern vermont; have mentioned this in our
hazardous weather outlook.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
on going convection will diminish with loss of daytime heating
and cloud cover will decrease with passage of the front. Lows
are expected to be mainly in the 50s.

Another short wave will move out of central Canada tonight and
deepen the longwave trough over the Great Lakes region Monday.
The trough will sharpen with the trough axis expected to move
across the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Heights will fall
and the cold pool associated with the short wave will moderate
some but pass over the area Tuesday. Expected scattered showers
with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms both Monday and
Tuesday mainly during the afternoon and evening utilizing
daytime heating. The better chances will be Tuesday as the
trough axis moves over the region.

Below normal temperatures both Monday and Tuesday by 5 to 10
degrees with highs from the upper 50s/lower 60s across portions
of the western Adirondacks into the mid/upper 70s in the Mid
Hudson valley into northwestern Connecticut.

&&

Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
subsident northwesterly upper-level flow builds in Wednesday
allowing for a tranquil weather day. However, a shower or two across
the southern Adirondacks cannot be totally ruled out as some model
guidance indicates potential for a weak shortwave embedded in the
northwesterly flow. Wednesday night should remain quiet as well,
although clouds may be on the increase ahead of the next system
late. Temps Wed/Wed night a hair below normal.

Models indicate a transition to a more active pattern for the end of
the week into Saturday as return southwesterly flow Ushers in a
moist airmass. Models have been keying in on the initial moisture
surge/low-level jet resulting in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
and Thursday night. Highest confidence for precipitation north and
west of the capital district. Thereafter, low confidence with
respect to timing and location of rainfall. A stalled frontal
boundary looks to set up somewhere in the vicinity of the forecast
area, which argues for keeping pops in the forecast Friday and
Friday night. Latest GFS/European model (ecmwf) hint at a more amplified disturbance
Saturday. Will continue with the theme of borderline high chance/low
likely pops Friday and Saturday. Temperatures Thursday through
Saturday should be back above normal, especially with the humid
airmass resulting in elevated overnight lows. However, the
temperature forecast is subject to future changes if it appears that
the frontal boundary sets up further south than current projections
indicate.

&&

Aviation /14z Sunday through Thursday/...
mainly clear skies early this morning, although a patch of
midlevel clouds is pushing into the capital district. Some light
fog is hanging on at kpou, but expect this to clear up by 13z at
the latest.

During the late morning to afternoon hours, a good cu-up is
expected thanks to cold midlevel air and a vigorous midlevel
disturbance rotating into the area. Cloud bases are expected to
be up around 5-6kft. Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two are expected to develop. Kept mention of
vcsh from 17-23z at all sites except kpou. Clouds and showers
expected to decrease after diurnal heating wanes in the
evening.

Light winds early this morning will become generally southwest
to west at around 10 to 15 kt by the afternoon, with gusts to
around 20 kt possible. Winds will diminish during the evening.



Outlook...

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Tuesday night: low operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig weather.
Thursday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.

&&

Fire weather...
a cold front and disturbance in the upper levels of the
atmosphere will approach and move across the region today and
tonight triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Another cold
front and upper level disturbance will trigger scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms again Monday and Tuesday mainly
during the afternoon and evening. Seasonably warm today with
cooler, below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

&&

Hydrology...
hydrological problems are not anticipated through over the next
several days. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected today, Monday and Tuesday mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours as short wave troughs and cold fronts
approach and move across the region.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...iaa
near term...iaa/NAS

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