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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Albany New York
548 am EDT Wednesday Jul 27 2016

Synopsis...
plenty of sunshine is expected today with continued hot
temperatures. Temperatures will continue to be rather warm through
the remainder of the week with the chance for showers and
thunderstorms returning for Thursday through Friday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 545 am EDT...mainly clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed
across the forecast area with temperatures in the mid 50s to mid
60s.

High pressure will remain across our region today providing sunny
skies and continued very warm to hot conditions with moderate
levels of humidity as dewpoints will be in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Highs this afternoon will reach the 80s to lower 90s with
some upper 70s across the highest terrain. Winds will be west at
5 to 10 mph.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through Friday night/...
for tonight...expect dry weather to continue as the ridge of high
pressure slides off the eastern Seaboard. It will be another humid
night with lows in the low to mid 60s.

Thursday through Friday night...expect more unsettled weather as a
cold front with several waves of low pressure moving along it will
be dropping slowly southeast from the eastern Great Lakes and
Saint Lawrence River valley. The frontal boundary will eventually
end up south of the region on Friday but be close enough to still
provide enough moisture to produce showers and thunderstorms
across southern portions of the region. On Thursday the greatest
threat of showers and thunderstorms will be across the
northwestern third of the forecast with the greatest threat by
Friday being across the southern half of the forecast area. The
thunderstorms at this time are not expected to be severe but may
produce locally heavy rainfall as precipitable waters rise to over 1.5 inches
across the southern half of the forecast area on Friday. It will
continue to be very warm to hot and muggy through the period.
Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 70s to lower 90s with
lows Thursday night in the upper 50s to around 70. Highs on Friday
will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with lows Friday night in the
upper 50s to upper 60s.

&&

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
the medium range guidance is converging on a better weekend shaping
up for eastern New York and western New England.

The latest GFS/ECMWF/can ggem...and the wpc guidance now has high
pressure building in over New York and New England for Saturday in the
wake of the low pressure system on Friday. This sfc ridge builds in
from SW Quebec with gradually clearing skies and cooler weather.
Highs on Saturday were favored in the upper 70s to lower 80s in the
valleys...and upper 60s to mid 70s over the mountains. Clouds start
to increase from the south and west Saturday night...as a another
low pressure system in the zonal flow aloft moving along the frontal
boundary over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic region quickly
approaches. Lows fall back into the mid and upper 50s north and
west of the capital district...and mostly lower to mid 60s south and
east.

Sunday-Sunday night...the second half of the weekend looks
potentially unsettled based on the European model (ecmwf)/can ggem and superblend
guidance...whereas the GFS and wpc guidance have a fair and dry
close to the weekend with the sfc anticyclone still in control with
the low pressure system passing south of the region. Disturbances
are hard to time in the zonal flow...and to be consistent with the
neighboring wfo's will be keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast Sunday into early Sunday night. More
clouds than sunshine will keep highs down a bit with mainly 70s to a
few near 80f readings...and lows similar to Sat night.

Monday into Tuesday...an long wave upper level trough lingers over
eastern New York and western New England Monday with isolated
showers/tstms possible...except they may be more scattered over the
western New England higher terrain. The showers/tstms should be
timed to the diurnal heating in the cyclonic flow. Upstream heights
will start to rise Monday night...as high pressure builds back in
from the Great Lakes region for Tue. Highs for the opening couple
of days for August will be near normal humidity levels decreasing by
Tuesday. Lows Mon night will range from the upper 50s over the mtns to
mid 60s in the valley areas.

&&

Aviation /10z Wednesday through Sunday/...
high pressure will build in over New York and New England today with
mainly VFR conditions continuing.

VFR conditions mostly this morning...but some radiational mist/fog
is possible at kpou/kpsf/kgfl especially btwn 08z-12z. We have
forecasted a tempo for IFR conditions at kgfl/kpsf. The fog
should burn off quickly with abundant sunshine and some mixing.

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon into tonight with a
few fair weather cumulus around in the 5-6 kft above ground level range. These
cumulus should thin quickly before sunset.

The winds will be calm this morning...and then pick up from the
southwest to west at 5-10 kts...and the become light to calm by
23z.

Outlook...

Thursday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Saturday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.
Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Sunday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of rain showers...tsra.
Monday: low operational impact. Slight chance of rain showers...tsra.

&&

Fire weather...
plenty of sunshine is expected today with continued hot
temperatures. Temperatures will continue to be rather warm through
the remainder of the week with the chance for showers and
thunderstorms returning for Thursday through Friday.

Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 50 percent today,
recover to 75 to 90 percent tonight, and drop to 35 to 60 percent
on Thursday.

Winds will be west at 5 to 10 mph today, light and variable
tonight, and southwest to west at 5 to 10 mph on Thursday.

&&

Hydrology...
much of the region is currently running 3 to 8 inches below normal
on annual rainfall. According to the U.S. Drought monitor, much of
the area is considered abnormally dry, and parts of the Catskills
and western New England are within a moderate drought.

High pressure will continue to allow for dry weather through
tonight. On Thursday, there is a slight to low chance for showers
and thunderstorms, with the best chance for areas north and west
of the capital region. Any rainfall would be rather light and
sparse in coverage.

A more widespread rainfall is possible between Thursday night and Friday
night, although model guidance has been unclear on the exact
timing, amounts and duration of the rain. This rainfall is much
needed, as river and stream flows are below normal across much of
eastern New York and western New England.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our website.

&&

Aly watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...none.
Massachusetts...none.
Vermont...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...frugis/11
near term...11
short term...11
long term...wasula
aviation...wasula
fire weather...11
hydrology...frugis/11

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